Why next week’s unemployment numbers are likely to be worse than this week’s

by Rabbitloki

We are preparing for potentially the worst unemployment numbers ever on record this Thursday. However with the Stimulus package now passed businesses across the US can now examine whether they have funding in order to retain employee’s or if they’ll need to trim immediately in order to survive.

For Small businesses which represent ~$5.9B or ~44% of the total US economy they are clearly the biggest losers in this stimulus package unless CNN has made a major misread.

The bill would ensure the Small Business Administration could serve as a guarantor for loans of up to $10 billion for small businesses to ensure they can maintain their payrolls and pay off their debts.

www.cnn.com/2020/03/25/politics/stimulus-senate-action-coronavirus/index.html

Small businesses employ 58.9 million people, which makes up 47.5% of the country’s total US workforce.

Accounting for the projected 2M employees in the first round of layoffs we can easily assume that half of these are from large companies. This leaves us a potential 57.9M small business employees now on the chopping block.

Another 5% reduction this upcoming Thursday seems very reasonable if not low given small business owners are quarantined around the country and have nothing to do but look at their outgoing cash expenditures. This represents 2.9M layoffs in next Thursday’s unemployment numbers.

Folks, Welcome the largest layoffs in history… Next week will be worse

Cash or Short… Calls are completely insane for anything other than day traders.