by neverskipdeads
I think the market is going to crash soon, specifically in September 2020. Here are my key indicators. Let me know how autistic I am. I mostly want to hear arguments as to why the market will keep going up.
- Joe Biden Winning the Election (Even if he doesn’t the market is still likely to crash with Trump just later, him winning is more just part of the reason I am timing in September, as well as the looming housing crisis, moratorium on evictions is up)
www.wellsfargo.com/the-private-bank/insights/investing/wfii-a-year-before-election-day/
Septembers of elections years dow J
1952 D>R: – 0.498%
1960 R>D: -.633%
1968 D>R: +1.19% Nixon’s election, democratic party would have won by far but there were two democrats (one as independent) running for office splitting votes in states
1976 R>D: -3.07%
1980 D>R: -1.82%
1992 R>D: -1.73%
2000 D>R: +2.87% Al Gore won popular vote, and would have won the election if the supreme court didn’t stop recounts.
2008 R>D: -13.2%
2016 D>R: -1.09%
2020 R>?
When the party swaps stocks drop. Biden likely to win
- The eviction crisis, hasn’t hit won’t become a bigger issue until beginning of September, no house bills to help these tenants
- Lack of faith in the market, gold and silver prices rising
- The Fed being in a pickle between printing more money causing inflation without raising interest rates
- Stock market overvaluation, current bubble that is all over the news. Once a small drop happens rapid selling is likely to occur as the bubble pops
- 11 year bull run with no real crash as of yet debts have been ever increasing with low interest rates
- Over 9% (34% annualized) drop in US GDP with stocks hitting all-time highs afterwards and investment in business dropped 49% annualized in Q2
- i2.wp.com/alhambrapartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/fredgraph-2020-08-03T164431.240.png
Tightening of loans to small businesses from banks while they are in A DECREASED DEMAND and low federal interest rates
i0.wp.com/alhambrapartners.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/fredgraph-2020-08-03T164421.132.png
- Consumer spending is expected to increase in the fall however it is unlikely as unemployment is high and so is savings rate
- Increased retail investment, increasing volatility and likelihood of a mass-sell off in fear
- The auto loan industry was unscathed in 2008 and is in big trouble as work-from-home is becoming more adopted and people may be willing to not pay their car loans and instead pay for rent
www.ft.com/content/5a8ca5b1-9a1c-4f81-99a5-acecef75b389
- To begin with, the 10-year U.S. Treasury bond is portending that a bumpy road lies ahead for the U.S. economy and equities. Last week, the 10-year T-bond closed with a yield of 0.536%, marking its second-lowest daily close of all-time. The only time we’ve witnessed a lower yield on the 10-year bond was during the March 2020 bear-market mayhem (0.499%), and it lasted for only a few hours. (August 5th)
- www.marketwatch.com/story/americans-household-debt-fell-for-the-first-time-since-2014-but-that-doesnt-mean-people-are-paying-off-their-loans-2020-08-06
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.