The incoming #recession may materialize at an accelerated pace due to the fact that post-2008, we never really had a recovery. We had anemic, depressed growth at the periphery of the zero bound. Easier to fall from 1-2% than 5-6%.
Banks’ consensus warned about a 2017 -then 2018, then 2019- US recession.
. The wide majority predicted stronger growth in Europe and Japan for 2018 and 2019.
. US Growth estimates up
. Japan and Europe down
“The Eurodollar curve is now inverted between Dec20 and Dec19 for the first time since 2007,” h/t
central banks will never get blamed on the next downturn — they got Trump as the scapegoat
12mo Libor at new high yield last seen in late 2008
— Dividend Master (@DividendMaster) July 16, 2018
yields surge on session w/ 2s10s .261 pic.twitter.com/vjSadUc2aU
— Alastair Williamson (@StockBoardAsset) July 16, 2018
5 year Yields
Despite good inventory data.
– China slowing
– Global growth estimates trimmed
– Rising Saudi output
Oil was artificially high
More Stories You May LikeIf everyone who reads our story, who likes it, helps fund it, our future would be much more secure. For as little as $1, you can support the IWB – and it only takes a minute. Thank you. 719 views