AIG Bailout $85B
QE Infinity GFC $85B/month
Today
1) $625B/week QE
2) De facto Yield Curve Control via QE price discretion
3) Commercial Paper
4) Municipals
5) CORPORATE BONDS
6) $4.5T lending facility
7) Small business lending
We’re running depressionary, not GFC, Fed policy
AIG Bailout $85B
QE Infinity GFC $85B/month
Today
1) $625B/week QE
2) De facto Yield Curve Control via QE price discretion
3) Commercial Paper
4) Municipals
5) CORPORATE BONDS
6) $4.5T lending facility
7) Small business lendingWe’re running depressionary, not GFC, Fed policy t.co/hXmmRLRkvO
— Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) March 27, 2020
VIX call option history pic.twitter.com/cqcRu7oM1P
— Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) March 29, 2020
The global economic sudden stop may have devastating consequences in the economy.
Global debt may soar to 400% of GDP as deficits balloon to 8-10% of GDP in major economies and private debt accelerates to unprecedented levels as earnings collapse and funding needs rise. pic.twitter.com/O2ercJdCiT
— Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) March 29, 2020
US estimated GDP drop ranging from 14% to 30%
- Satellite imagery combined with alternative data gives a stark look at the U.S. situation during the coronavirus pandemic.
- These sources are pretty much all that is available at the moment to track the scope of the economic damage since most official statistics tracking the slowdown have not yet been released.
- Airplanes are parked on unused runways, the busiest highways are empty during rush hour times, resorts have become ghost towns, ports are seeing sharp drops in shipping activity and more.
- The drop in U.S. consumer and business activity is apparent in satellite imagery collected by companies like Maxar Technologies, Planet Labs, ICEYE and Orbital Insight.
An unprecedented withdrawal of capital from emerging markets is threatening to create a wave of debt defaults. t.co/2lZAh033Bn via @WSJ
— Stare Decisis (@MsResJudicata) March 29, 2020
Q2 $SPY EPS estimates now down -10%. Tech earnings expectations up YoY is likely faulty. Software channel checks -25% or more for deals past March. Semis will be pressured heavily if smartphone shipments follow China which were -55% YoY. pic.twitter.com/fMe7iLDCRg
— Greg S. (@GS_CapSF) March 29, 2020
100k flights per day globally. I must admit that I am slightly surprised that there are still so many. t.co/yr6eS49dnQ pic.twitter.com/7GqqlIG4SK
— Adam Tooze (@adam_tooze) March 29, 2020
Coronavirus 'good scenario' could be 20% of small businesses fail t.co/3QrM0GHChK
— In The Know Money (@InTheKnowMoney) March 29, 2020