What predicts a recession?

by Dave I trained up a “recession detector” using as the training key the “USREC” (US recession declared) monthly timeseries from FRED, with the longest-dated macro timeseries I could find from FRED.  These included: PPIACO, INDPRO, BAA, AAA, DJI, DJT. In my training session, I trained the model on data from 1920-2004.  Then I presented … Read more

Ontario DESPERATE To Pay Off Debt – Asks Citizens To Volunteer Their Money!

Josh Sigurdson talks with author and economic analyst John Sneisen about the absurdity of the latest desperate request by the Ontario government to volunteer their tax rebate to help pay off the province’s debt. This as Moody’s warns of the absolute unsustainable level of debt plaguing Ontario. Of course, Kathleen Wynne is pushing big government … Read more