🇺🇸 Economic momentum is peaking.
At the highs of 68 in March, ISM Mfg New Orders were in the 95th %ile of their historical distribution since 1948…
Very stretched.
My leads suggest we top out early next year & then work lower.
Huge asset allocation implications.
Stay tuned. pic.twitter.com/hEsKjodV6d
— Julien Bittel, CFA (@BittelJulien) October 30, 2021
Spike in yields at the front end of the #yieldcurve reflects surge in expectations of rapid increase in rates by #Fed. Why then are longer term #bonds rallying? Fed will contain #inflation and in the process risk an earlier #recession.
— Scott Minerd (@ScottMinerd) October 29, 2021
https://twitter.com/coloradotravis/status/1454054916113109005
A spectacular collapse in liquidity in the rates markets this week pic.twitter.com/nWwYERPsFh
— Igor Shatz (@Copernicus2013) October 29, 2021