Physical Brent hits record. Buyers paying up for barrels that can be delivered now. Gap to futures widest ever. Oil could have hit $200. China helped stop it.

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Nikkei: Dated Brent (near-term physical cargoes) at a record. Spread to futures over $50 at points last week. Futures trading $104–$106. Demand concentrating on North Sea barrels with firmer dates. Middle East cargoes delayed by Hormuz. Goldman raised December Brent forecast to $90 from $85. Risk premium just over $20 a barrel, near the high end of its series. Vitol CEO Russell Hardy: no more inventories to drain in the West. Full stop of the Hormuz shuttle could produce $200. Aramco CEO Amin Nasser in Riyadh 12 October: commercial onshore inventories well below six billion barrels, the last buffer. Refilling while meeting demand could take up to two years. Diesel around $200 a barrel equivalent. Pressure intensifies until Hormuz fully reopens and confidence returns.

https://asia.nikkei.com/business/energy/record-price-for-physical-brent-shows-how-badly-the-world-wants-oil-now

https://www.aramco.com/en/news-media/speeches/2026/remarks-by-amin-h-nasser-at-25th-wpc-energy-conference

https://hk.marketscreener.com/news/goldman-sees-brent-at-90-in-december-as-supply-risks-delay-price-relief-ce785ddcde8ff420

China cut crude imports hard. That’s the main reason oil is near $100 instead of higher.

China reduced crude imports by roughly 3–5.5 million barrels a day after the Iran war started. Drew on strategic and commercial stocks of over 1 billion barrels. Imports fell to around 6 million bpd at the low. Recovered only partially. Energy Aspects and Kpler say Beijing used inventory and held refinery runs to limit the spike. Ken Griffin has said oil could have been near $200 without that. Current Brent around $105–$106. Buffer is finite. Large-scale buying returns at some point. Inventory cushion elsewhere is already thin.

https://www.worldports.org/oils-roundtrip-back-to-100-why-china-could-determine-what-happens-next/

AIS trackers: roughly 3–9 commercial ships a day versus ~75 pre-crisis. Status restricted or effectively closed for most commercial traffic. War-risk insurance multiples of peacetime. Iran requires permits, claims control. U.S. naval coordination for crossings that occur. Loaded oil tankers limited. Same period: continued tanker hits and Houthi strikes on Saudi targets, including Riyadh airport attacks that killed 13 and wounded more than 300.

https://straitofhormuz.report/today

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