from Zero Hedge
The Dow is up over 100 points and the Turkish Lira is up 5%, rallying away from the dreaded 7.00 Maginot Line of global doom… and judging by the notes and business media narrative this morning, it’s time to “dive right back in, the water’s warm.”
You may be able to sense out skepticism and as former fund manager and FX trader Richard Breslow notes, it’s “mind-boggling” how fast market participants jump back to the narrative du jour, no matter how obvious reality (lurking right behind the corner) really is.
Having a market narrative is a necessary thing. How else would you answer the question, “What’s going on?” But it can also be dangerous. There is a big difference between saying things are bouncing, pausing or, even, traders are having a bit of a rethink and declaring that the excitement is all over and it is carry as usual. We don’t know that, even if it turns out to be true. And, unless you are willing to stipulate that everything we said yesterday about dollar-funding risk and current-account deficits was off-base, it’s not helpful.