Coronavirus has broken containment. It’s exploding across the world, from Italy to Singapore, South Korea and Japan.
Now Australian medicos are sounding the alarm: we must prepare for this pandemic to strike home, Soon.
There’s been a profound shift in the Covid-19 epidemic.
Health officials are being taken by surprise. New cases of the virus are appearing seemingly everywhere. And not all of them can be traced back to travellers.
That means it’s already loose. Deep inside communities, such as Italy and Japan.
That means it’s entering a new phase.
Last week, the World Health Organisation (WHO) warned that the “window of opportunity” to contain the disease was narrowing.
But many epidemiologists fear that may have already passed.
It’s in hospitals. It’s in prisons. It’s on cruise ships.
It seems to be spread by carriers long before they show symptoms themselves.
And that makes the virus almost impossible to contain.
So how bad is it?
University of Queensland associate professor in virology Ian Mackay yesterday queried a disease risk-assessment think-tank. He wanted to know the most responsible way to discuss the worsening Covid-19 outbreak.
So, he asked risk communicators Lanard & Sandman about whether it was time to start using the ‘P word’.
“Yes,” came the blunt reply.
“It is past time to say ‘pandemic’.”
The virus is likely to soon be loose in our own country, cities and towns.
Air cargo and shipping containers from China could contain viable Coronavirus
Variants of corona virus can remain active for up to 28 days on surfaces at 39.2 ° F (4 °C)
Most people are discussing passenger air travel, but aren’t thinking about air cargo or container shipping by sea.
consider how much of the worlds manufacturing capability has been outsourced to one country … China
- electronics
- packaging
- medical supplies
- pharmaceuticals
- various goods including processed food
If the corona virus continues spreading you’re going to see a severe impact on global markets including shortages. That’s assuming the virus is contained to China.
Hundreds of pilots flying air cargo to/from China each day could be infected and spread the virus.
Packages and goods shipped from China on air cargo flights could contain active living corona virus which could infect anyone along a supply chain, including package handlers, customs, or the recipient.
Consider how much air freight ships from China each day to the United States, Canada, and Mexico, not counting goods sold through Ebay, Alibaba, or Amazon
Variants of corona virus can remain active for up to 28 days on surfaces at 39.2 ° F (4 °C)
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4659470/
We report here that pathogenic human coronavirus 229E remained infectious in a human lung cell culture model following at least 5 days of persistence on a range of common nonbiocidal surface materials, including polytetrafluoroethylene (Teflon; PTFE), polyvinyl chloride (PVC), ceramic tiles, glass, silicone rubber, and stainless steel. We have shown previously that noroviruses are destroyed on copper alloy surfaces. In this new study, human coronavirus 229E was rapidly inactivated on a range of copper alloys (within a few minutes for simulated fingertip contamination) and Cu/Zn brasses were very effective at lower copper concentration. Exposure to copper destroyed the viral genomes and irreversibly affected virus morphology, including disintegration of envelope and dispersal of surface spikes.
www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2863430/
Effects of Air Temperature and Relative Humidity on Coronavirus Survival on Surfaces▿
Abstract
Assessment of the risks posed by severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) coronavirus (SARS-CoV) on surfaces requires data on survival of this virus on environmental surfaces and on how survival is affected by environmental variables, such as air temperature (AT) and relative humidity (RH). The use of surrogate viruses has the potential to overcome the challenges of working with SARS-CoV and to increase the available data on coronavirus survival on surfaces. Two potential surrogates were evaluated in this study; transmissible gastroenteritis virus (TGEV) and mouse hepatitis virus (MHV) were used to determine effects of AT and RH on the survival of coronaviruses on stainless steel. At 4°C, infectious virus persisted for as long as 28 days, and the lowest level of inactivation occurred at 20% RH. Inactivation was more rapid at 20°C than at 4°C at all humidity levels; the viruses persisted for 5 to 28 days, and the slowest inactivation occurred at low RH. Both viruses were inactivated more rapidly at 40°C than at 20°C. The relationship between inactivation and RH was not monotonic, and there was greater survival or a greater protective effect at low RH (20%) and high RH (80%) than at moderate RH (50%). There was also evidence of an interaction between AT and RH. The results show that when high numbers of viruses are deposited, TGEV and MHV may survive for days on surfaces at ATs and RHs typical of indoor environments. TGEV and MHV could serve as conservative surrogates for modeling exposure, the risk of transmission, and control measures for pathogenic enveloped viruses, such as SARS-CoV and influenza virus, on health care surfaces.
h/t upvoatz