Bull Case: Fed is done tightening and will halt balance sheet reductions, China launching stealth QE, ECB ready to do MOAR easing, BOJ QE forever, China trade deal coming, US Govt re-opens.
Bear Case: The entire world is a farce of a sham of a clusterfuck.
— Uncle Rico (@UncleRico77) January 25, 2019
Don't overthink it. pic.twitter.com/WluBGJq81m
— Uncle Rico (@UncleRico77) January 30, 2019
Here's forward returns for $ES_F after stocks are up over 1% on farcical FOMC bullshit days since 2007 when this sham of a global central bank monetary experiment began. cc @OddStats pic.twitter.com/tHPaJy3EEx
— Uncle Rico (@UncleRico77) January 30, 2019
Fed pausing is #bullish, right?
If recessions and market crashes are bullish, then yes.
Since the Fed became focused on creating asset bubbles (mid-90s), each “pause” in rate hikes preceded a recession/severe market collapses pic.twitter.com/OkwPORgiwx
— OCCUPY WISDOM (@OccupyWisdom) January 31, 2019
Don't overthink it. pic.twitter.com/WluBGJq81m
— Uncle Rico (@UncleRico77) January 30, 2019
HERE WE GO
This is the Dow Jones Industrials chart for the past year (including today) with dots showing every time @realDonaldTrump tweeted SPECIFICALLY about the stock market.
I omitted tweets about "the economy" that didn't mention stocks. pic.twitter.com/WJcOMVmymz
— OddStats (@OddStats) January 31, 2019
Look at this chart: ratio of “present situation” to “expectations” from the Conference Board confidence report. Cut-and-dry sign of a tapped-out consumer. A great leading indicator at turning points because it either coincides with the recession or occurs a few months prior pic.twitter.com/qEf1a8ekVn
— David Rosenberg (@EconguyRosie) January 29, 2019
Wanna see what has happened after consumer confidence drops 18 points from a multi-month high (when over 100) since 1967? Hasn't meant much for $SPX outright, but VERY interesting for $GLD and GLD/SPX relative performance going forward. Nature's first green is gold, Pony Boy. pic.twitter.com/zgEERrzude
— Uncle Rico (@UncleRico77) January 29, 2019
Time in months between last US rate hike & first rate cut… pic.twitter.com/lAoB3pNATm
— Jenna & John (@StrategicBond) January 31, 2019
Dear Fed.
An economy that cannot take 3% rates with 3.7% unemployment and 3.4% annualized growth rate is either not a "strong economy" or the central bank policy only looks to inflate financial assets,
Or both? pic.twitter.com/KZsynfoERR
— Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) January 31, 2019
Expect a lot of bad news during earnings season, says Leuthold Group’s…
Expect a lot of bad news during earnings season, says Leuthold Group’s Paulsen from CNBC.