Hard Landing? The probability model for a recession from the Federal Reserve has been steadily increasing and has now reached its highest point since 1982.. Time to sell?

via geofinancialnews: The probability model for a recession from the Federal Reserve has been steadily increasing and has now reached its highest point since 1982. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is known for its slow process of identifying business cycle changes, often lagging behind by months as they consider various data series and … Read more

Sanctions against Russia are quite ‘successful’. Russia is less likely to have a recession.

European sanctions on Russian oil are extremely effective. 🥴 Ht @Jkylebass pic.twitter.com/nEXBpggMwy — Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) April 29, 2023 Thanks to the sanctions, Russia is less likely to have a recession pic.twitter.com/3WTTJtBWFT — Russian Market (@runews) April 30, 2023 2. Root problem is an infatuation with financial sanctions. These can be effective when used … Read more

Twitter Under Elon Musk Adds a Correction, Community Note, Under an MSNBC Host’s Statistics on Black and White Murder Rates

"White people kill other white people at almost the same rate black people kill other black people & yet you never hear anyone complaining about 'white on white crime'. These aren't points of sage wisdom from Maher. They are classic racist dog whistles."pic.twitter.com/VZlCoqfet9 — Mehdi Hasan (@mehdirhasan) April 28, 2023 *Rate* and *frequency* are two … Read more

Crisis? What Crisis? First Republic Bank Headed For FDIC Receivership, US Yield Curve Plunges, Bank Lending Plunges, Middle Class Shrinks Under Biden/Yellen

by confoundedinterest17 Crisis? What crisis? First, First Republic bank is most likely headed for FDIC receivership, sources say; shares drop 40%. Second, we have the US yield curve (3M T-yield – 18M FWD 3M T-yield) crashing to the most inverted since the 1990s. Third, we have US bank lending crashing. Fourth, we have a shrinking middle … Read more

Similar to October 2008 when the TARP bailout passed after it failed the first time. The market imploded. Similar to March 2020 when the Fed cut rates and restarted QE during the incipient meltdown. Bank failures will continue

by BoatSurfer600 R.I.P First Republic Bank. FRC, which boosted assets of more than $212 billion on 31st December 2022, will be taken over by the FDIC as the rescue hopes falter. We are witnessing a crisis due to banks’ failure to manage interest rate risk. Many more failures are yet to come Big banks including … Read more

DNC has already announced that it will not allow any debates in 2024 primary. Biden is not to be challenged.

Even the left thinks the coddling of this demented pedo criminal by the establishment is ridiculous. Interesting. DNC has already announced that it will not allow any debates in 2024 primary. Biden is not to be challenged. Everyone on the Democratic side must shut up and fall in line. Not having debates is undemocratic and … Read more

Massive Ongoing Fire in Tehran – Possibly Military Related

Tweets by sentdefender Some exclusive images from #Tehran, taken @ ~ 21:00 Tehran time (1730Z) Coords:~35.531,51.453 Military cars near the fire site belong to IRGC Thar Allah which is responsible for the "security of the capital" [your guess is as good as mine] https://t.co/OnxXeydfVe pic.twitter.com/DfFX5ZsTQv — Aleph א (@no_itsmyturn) April 28, 2023 #BREAKING #IRAN 🔴 … Read more

When We Lose Small Businesses…

by Charles Hugh-Smith When we lose small businesses, we lose More than tax revenues. Small businesses receive plenty of lip service but very little appreciation–until they’re gone. By then it’s too late to do anything but mutter, “you don’t know what you’ve got until it’s gone.” Small businesses aren’t just sources of tax revenues, they’re sources of … Read more