Hard Landing? The probability model for a recession from the Federal Reserve has been steadily increasing and has now reached its highest point since 1982.. Time to sell?

via geofinancialnews:

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The probability model for a recession from the Federal Reserve has been steadily increasing and has now reached its highest point since 1982.

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) is known for its slow process of identifying business cycle changes, often lagging behind by months as they consider various data series and wait for revisions. As a result, experts have created models to foretell when these shifts will occur, including when recessions would start. Jonathan Wright developed one of these models while he was employed by the Federal Reserve Board.

 

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