Probability of death by…
by AT I saw this today and thought it a helpful visual for reminding us, as individuals, which life threats to prioritize keeping our eyes on: via Gfycat
probability
Current recession probability is highest since GFC. In last 50y, probability has never got to this level without economy going into recession.
Current recession probability is highest since GFC. In last 50y, probability has never got to this level without economy going into recession. t.co/dn3q39SHqT — Anil (@anilvohra69) October 6, 2019 3 … Read more
Survey of economists by WSJ, highest recession probability reading ever in history of survey
Survey of economists by @WSJ, highest recession probability reading ever in history of survey pic.twitter.com/eEtwQlG98x — Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) August 29, 2019 where is this second half rebound? pic.twitter.com/7pdT1MWS72 … Read more
US: Probability of a recession 6 months ahead -53%; Market pricing in almost a 60% probability of 3 (or more) additional Fed rate cuts this year –
US: Probability of a recession 6 months ahead. Activity augmented yield curve model: 53% – @SoberLook @OxfordEconomics @jemcrobie pic.twitter.com/qfIZqADUAR — Rob Hager (@Rob_Hager) August 15, 2019 Chart (@TheTerminal): Market pricing … Read more
US House Price Growth Signals “Bubble” As Recession Probability Rises
by confoundedinterest I remember when a Chief Economist at a large Washington DC area housing finance entity said that the definition of a house price bubble is when house price growth … Read more
Recession Probability Charts: Current Odds About 33%
via mishtalk: The New York Fed has the odds of a recession within the next year at 33%. Some of the other models are humorous. New York Fed Treasury Spread Model … Read more
The New York Feds recessions probability model is reporting that there is probably going to be a recession in the next 12 months.
That’s worrying because the model has been spot on with its predictions of the 2007, 2001, early nineties, early eighties recessions via Forbes: The current U.S. economic expansion turned ten-years-old … Read more
Schiff: July Rate Cut Probability = 100%
RT, Released on 6/19/19 Peter Schiff is an internationally recognized economist specializing in the foreign equity, currency and gold markets. Mr. Schiff made his name as President and Chief Global Strategist … Read more
Markets are pricing a 75% chance of rate cuts in the US and an increasing probability of QE.
via @dlacalle_IA: A strong and healthy economic recovery does not need further monetary stimuli. The Fed is making a big mistake by fueling the risky asset bubble and not paying attention … Read more
Global Economy Weakest Since Financial Crisis… The Probability Of A Major Contraction In The Economy Shot Up To 73%, From Just 24% In December… Investors Are Starting To Become Concerned
Global Economy Weakest Since Financial Crisis (Bloomberg) — The global economy’s sharp loss of speed through 2018 has left the pace of expansion the weakest since the global financial crisis … Read more
What an increasing recession probability means for the stock market
by Troy As the S&P 500 stalls at its 200 day moving average, recession probabilities are rising according to the New York Fed. Let’s look at what this means for … Read more
NOT BULLISH: The euro area is back on the brink of recession, Japan’s exports fall, U.S. recession probability raising
Make European recessions great again pic.twitter.com/TOiHIFVT4y — zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 24, 2019 Economist: The euro area is back on the brink of recession The euro has been an economic fiasco. … Read more
Tightening Again? High Odds This Bear Market Will Last Well Into 2019. 90% probability in 2019
via @crossbordercap: Tightening Again … Alas Latest data show major #CentralBanks’ aggregate balance sheet shrinking 1.3% in US$ terms .US$, policy liquidity shrank by a whopping 5.4% , mostly due … Read more
Central banking forward guidance ignores the rules of probability
by Shaun Richards Today we can continue our journey into the world of central bankers which is a cosy international club. It was hard as the New York Federal Reserve … Read more
There is a HIGH Probability, we may see a SWIFT and SEVERE drop in Indexes in coming weeks.
There is a HIGH Probability, we may see a SWIFT and SEVERE drop in Indexes in coming weeks. $DJI should not cross 26278 level(for SPX 2815.15) or ST invalidated. Uncannily … Read more
CLAIM: 80% Probability of Planet-Wide “Carrington Event” Within Weeks; That’s why Solar Observatories Closed
by Amy S. A Department of Defense (Dod) source informs me that the reason the sunspot observatory in New Mexico has been evacuated and multiple other Solar Observatories around the world … Read more