Credit Suisse 5Y CDS exploded higher to 766bps, pricing in a probability of default of 47%, stock plunges 30%. The Saudis have said they won’t invest. Credit Suisse failure would be 5x SVB March 16, 2023 10:44 amMarch 15, 2023 10:30 am
60-80% probability of recession for US, EU and UK. Drop to 2000 for S&P within 3 months? November 8, 2022 10:42 pmNovember 8, 2022 11:02 am
Elon Musk: “Nuclear War Probability Is Rising Rapidly” October 12, 2022 8:13 amOctober 11, 2022 10:23 am
Achy-Breaky Fed? US 30Yr Mortgage Rate Rises 31 Basis Points Over Last Week As Recession Probability Increases (How Will Fed Act?) August 22, 2022 6:32 pm
Escalating risk in China increases probability of escalating risk across Hong Kong, HSBC, European banks and so on… everything is connected. August 15, 2022 8:33 pmAugust 15, 2022 1:10 pm
Eurozone’s probability going into recession got extra momentum as refinancing cost continues to soar. June 10, 2022 9:34 amJune 9, 2022 10:09 am
Probability of a U.S. recession has risen to highest since February 2007; “Hiring freeze” announcements jumped in May. June 3, 2022 10:11 am
Slipping Into Darkness? Inflation + Growing Recession Probability = Stagflation? November 16, 2021 6:51 pm
Déjà Vu metrics indicate high probability for October Crash October 3, 2021 8:16 amOctober 1, 2021 10:49 am
Markets are pricing a 75% chance of rate cuts in the US and an increasing probability of QE. April 25, 2019 11:28 am
What an increasing recession probability means for the stock market February 12, 2019 8:10 amFebruary 12, 2019 8:10 am
Tightening Again? High Odds This Bear Market Will Last Well Into 2019. 90% probability in 2019 November 30, 2018 8:34 amNovember 29, 2018 8:14 am
There is a HIGH Probability, we may see a SWIFT and SEVERE drop in Indexes in coming weeks. November 12, 2018 7:13 amNovember 11, 2018 9:15 am
