Link to the Slides and Sources: www.itmtrading.com/blog/consi…
On March 22, 2019, considered the most accurate forecaster of recession signaled red when the 3-month treasury rate paid more than the 10-year treasury did (so did the 6-month and 1-year). The last time that happened was in 2006 and led to the “Great Recession” that became visible to all in the fall of 2008.
In fact, sophisticated market participants have begun to question the central banker’s ability to bail out the next crisis. As witnessed by, at this writing, the overnight Fed Funds Rate stands at 2.4% while the 10-year treasury rate is 2.41%, making cash king. In addition, the cup formation in spot gold is a smart money accumulation pattern and is nearing conclusion as well as massive central bank gold buying.
For now, sophisticated market participants question the central bankers’ abilities as they take money off the table, but what happens when the public loses confidence? Reset.