Record valuations and leverage alone do not make a market top.
Add macro timing:
-Faltering consumer confidence
-Liquidity drying up
-Negative economic surprises
-EPS growth deceleration
-Yield curve inversions
-Extreme VIX short
-China shocks to comet.co/9DrQo35QlK
— Kevin C. Smith, CFA (@crescatkevin) April 26, 2019
The recipe for a hard landing:
Historical global debt imbalances.
Record overvalued assets prices.
Faith in central banks having control of the business cycle.
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) April 25, 2019