The economy is contracting. We have seen this all throughout 2018 and it still persists in 2019. Take a look at the imbalances that have formed. Manufacturing down globally, stocks rise. Jobs numbers come out and they were lower than expectations, stocks rise. Bond market screaming warning signals, stocks rise. Somehow this feels like the year 2000 again. Don’t you think?
David Rosenberg on Twitter: “The small business sector leads the cycle and employment here has plunged 61k in the past two months. Haven’t seen this in over 9 years; same decline we saw in Feb-March of 2008 when the consensus was busy calling for a soft landing. This isn’t a repeat of 2016 by any stretch.” / Twitter
David Rosenberg on Twitter: “It’s not often that the SPX hits a high with cyclical stocks down 13% from their peak. Good thing we have Utilities and Staples to rotate into. The sort of stuff you want to own in a downturn, the same one that most commodities and bond yields are telling you is around the corner” / Twitter
ADP/Moody’s: Private payrolls rise 102,000 in June vs. 135,000 est.
ADP small business.jpg (732×386)
U.S. trade deficit surges to five-month high as imports soar – Reuters