GDPNow and other GDP estimates took a dive today on weaker than expected manufacturing reports.
The GDPNow forecast for third-quarter GDP fell to 1.8% today on weak economic reports.
Gold and Treasuries Rally
Manufacturing ISM Worst Since 2009 on Severe Contraction of Export Orders@IanShepherdson "First-ever recession caused by actions of the president"https://t.co/POOo9lT110
— Mike "Mish" Shedlock (@MishGEA) October 1, 2019
Nothing like this stinker of a number to turn around #Gold and #Treasuries. . .and cause a reality check for #stocks https://t.co/MBiODT0cM3
— Chris Temple (@NatInvestor) October 1, 2019
GDP Estimates
https://twitter.com/UPFINAcom/status/1179102506275807233
Oxford Estimate
https://twitter.com/UPFINAcom/status/1179033569676681216
Real Final Sales
The important number is “Real Final Sales“.
That’s the bottom line estimate for the economy. The rest is inventory adjustment which nets to zero over time.
The GDPNow estimate of Real Final Sales fell to 1.6% today, a new low for the series. It’s near, and possibly below the economic stall point.
Also, please see my report today: Manufacturing ISM Worst Since 2009 on Severe Contraction of Export Orders.