*Note that over the coming year ~ global markets are going to witness a plunge in liquidity/support from both US fiscal + Fed tightening👇🏻
W/ the G4 also tightening, there’s an expected $5-7T in global liquidity/support being drained w/i a relatively short period (15mo)
Fragile pic.twitter.com/VuaSPFIbfV
— Adem Tumerkan (@RadicalAdem) March 19, 2022
Note that via the Fed’s ‘dot plot’ – Fed members expect 175-bsp increases (that’s seven 0.25% hikes) min. in 2022
That’s a huge increase (and won’t happen IMO as it’ll plunge economy into recession)
But it’s a double blow for consumers: higher costs + higher debt costs
P2
— Adem Tumerkan (@RadicalAdem) March 19, 2022
*via Goldman Sachs – US Treasury market liquidity + depth have significantly eroded over the last year (esp. in Q1-2022) ~ hitting levels only last seen during COVID + 2008
Such Illiquidity pockets are forming amid Fed + fiscal tightening
This is amplifying fragility = downside pic.twitter.com/3RS96RIvnw
— Adem Tumerkan (@RadicalAdem) March 19, 2022