Goldman Sachs: Here’s What Could Happen Next with Us-China Trade War

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via CNBC:

  • U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat of increased tariffs on Chinese goods is an indication that U.S.-China trade negotiations may have hit “a sticking point,” Goldman Sachs says in a note.
  • “This represents a shift from the optimistic statements from US officials over the last few weeks and suggests that the probability of a near-term agreement is at least slightly lower than it seemed to be recently,” the bank says.
  • The most important near-term indicator to watch, according to Goldman, will be whether the large delegation of Chinese officials comes to Washington on May 8, as scheduled.

 

U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat of increased tariffs on Chinese goods is an indication that U.S.-China trade negotiations “might have reached a sticking point,” Goldman Sachs said on Sunday.

The bank said in a note that chances of a successful deal are now lower, but suggested that an increase in tariffs could still be avoided — especially if the Chinese delegation still attends its meeting with U.S. negotiators this week.

Referring to Trump’s latest gambit, Goldman economists said: “This represents a shift from the optimistic statements from US officials over the last few weeks and suggests that the probability of a near-term agreement is at least slightly lower than it seemed to be recently.”

 

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