H-15 update. Log data of treasury yields showing we’re getting close to a new recession.

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by laflammaster

You can trick the stock market, but you can’t trick the bond market.

This is a treasury yield graph across multiple terms.

I won’t go into what treasury yield is here.

The squiggly lines showing a log-converted data starting from 1962.

Each time before a recession (gray columns), the yields converge – i.e. Becoming very close to each other.

You can see clearest the March 2020, but it is yet to have a gray column to indicate recession.

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The closer we get to today’s date, the more violent the spread becomes also.

What it currently shows is that the yields are converging again, indicating a recession in a couple of months.

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