All the models are uniniversal agreement of some sort of Hurricane developing in the Gulf next week. Canadian, Navy, and euro saw it days ago, now the GFS is in agreement. Prep NOW folks!!
www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/
See the orange X
* Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…high…80 percent.
UPDATE – No change to the 00z and 06z GFS runs. They still show a strong cat 1 cat 2 impacting the Jacksonville area. Almost a direct hit.
EURO – Still shows a strong tropical storm or cat 1 directly impacting the tip of the Florida panhandle.
Canadian – Still showing a near identical forecast to the last 4 days. Strong TS or a cat 1 impacting the Mississippi/Panhandle area.
Upgraded GFS – Still showing a strong cat 1 hitting the Florida Panhandle. Major shift west about 75-100 miles towards Louisiana and Mississippi.
NHC now shows an 80/90% chance of formation.
The storm WILL hit folks, it’s just a matter of where and when and whether it will be a TS or Cat1. Sea surface temps are very warm in the gulf. I’d say cat 1.
So the latest is basically a storm is guaranteed at this point. How intense is uncertain, there are some models calling for a MAJOR hurricane, but I think that is unlikely at this point, there will be some shear in the gulf, so let’s see what happens.
00z models on the GFS, Upgraded GFS, EURO, JMA, NAVY Canadian, all confirm a tropical storm up to a strong cat 2 at this point. I hope news stations are talking about this.
NHC has labeled this as potential tropical cyclone 14.
Pin request lets keep the updates coming!!
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www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2
h/t AmericanSpyglass