by Chris Black
The US used to be world’s biggest manufacturer of high-tech goods, before we “financialized” our economy and offshored production to China, Taiwan, Vietnam and wherever, because muh globalism mantra.
Here’s the latest numbers:
ISM Manufacturing Unexpectedly Slumps To Lowest In 18 Months, Prices Paid Spikes t.co/DP7xhNNUoE
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 1, 2022
Let’s say I am trying to plan production of a product. You don’t just say, “OK, we’re in 2022. So what do we want for 2022?”.
2022 product started out in 2018. That is when the initial groundwork was done. The Plandemic threw a massive wrench into the workings of every company’s planning process.
Last year people were working on what would show up on shelves in 2024.
Do you understand what this means?
2022 and 2023 essentially isn’t happening. Anything that could have been produced for the 2022 season didn’t get made.
Typically depending on the seasonality of your business you outline a product line in one month for three years out. You spend six months on development and first samples. You then go back and forth for another four months or so with new samples and changes.
You then order sales samples, which take another three to four months to make. Once you have those, you make sales appointments. The retailers then place orders, and you make a production order.
Production is usually 60-90 days, and then shipping is another month or two.
Production is a nightmare right now with lead times going further than a year. Shipping isn’t going to take a month or two either. You need to pencil in four to six months right now.
If you haven’t noticed, you’ve already blew through your window of opportunity to sell.
I’ve been told that orders placed right now, might not even make it for 2025.
What looks like empty shelves now, will seem like fully stocked inventory this fall.
Another bad thing that happened is that foreign manufacturing couldn’t make delivery. Billions upon billions of dollars’ worth of product that was supposed to be produced and delivered in Q1, was never even made. What point is there in producing product for a season, if it can’t make it there for the season?
The problem is raw materials. The imbecilic push for PPE globally absolutely decimated the supplies of nylon and vinyl, i.e. things that are essential for textiles and foams. One factory I heard from simply couldn’t make any product, because they couldn’t get foam. There was no substitute, so production didn’t happen. Also, with oil up, shipping still through the roof, and near zero supply of many raw materials, there is no profit to be made from selling a lot of product.
The act of engaging in commerce puts you in bankruptcy.