In 8 of the 9 times Chicago PMI has printed today’s level it came with a Recession.

Chicago PMI Plunges To 4 Year Low

…plunging from 50.4 in August to 43.2 (contraction) in October (well below the 48.0 expected).

Under the hood:

  • Prices paid rose at a slower pace, signaling expansion
  • New orders fell at a faster pace, signaling contraction
  • Employment fell at a slower pace, signaling contraction
  • Inventories fell at a slower pace, signaling contraction
  • Supplier deliveries rose at a faster pace, signaling expansion
  • Production fell at a slower pace, signaling contraction
  • Order backlogs fell at a faster pace, signaling contraction

This is unpossible… haven’t the people living in Chicago looked at the stock market recently?

 

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