In March 2021, the yield on a 10 year U.S. Treasury note averaged 1.61 percent. This forecast is for it to fall to 1.30 percent by November 2021

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Mainstream consensus is 1.9% (if not 2.2%!) My own belief is sub-zero in August or Q4.

In 1990 a multi-year downtrend began, ending in 1993. Also 2000 – 2003 and 2007 – 2012. All three episodes had “pauses” in the middle. I suspect Q1, Q2 are that pause. Possibly with Q3 as part of it or more likely the downtrend resumes any month from then (July/Aug/Sept). And in each of those other instances the resumption occurred With A Vengeance.

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h/t mark000


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