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Q4 GDPNow almost zero. That invented yield curve was sure way off the mark! t.co/2w6ffQNwGA — Albert Edwards (@albertedwards99) November 15, 2019 if consumer is removed from equation – economy … Read more
The yield curve going back to normal is almost certainly an extremely bearish sign. It always reverts to normal beforea recession hits, often merely months ahead. fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=ptQw “After the first intraday inversion … Read more
by UPFINA The yield curve is now normal again across all maturities. If it wasn’t for the way the curve inverted, this would be a recessionary warning. There was a major … Read more
Wolf Richter wolfstreet.com, www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter Yield Curve Spaghetti! It happened. Hallelujah. Or maybe better: Watch Out! The yield curve, after having been at least partially inverted all year, un-inverted today. The … Read more
27 Country GDP Weighted Yield Spread. GDP weighted 10s – GDP weighted policy rate pic.twitter.com/2KHsnH3hUP — Eric Basmajian (@EPBResearch) October 14, 2019 World Trade Volume chart🙄 pic.twitter.com/L0zHbLki0n — M/I_Investments (@MI_Investments) … Read more
by SpontaneousDisorder Whilst an inverted yield curve predicts recession its the re-steepening that tells you recession is coming. My view has been that when the yield curve steepens again and … Read more
Campbell Harvey is a Professor at Duke University and a partner at Research Affiliates. He sat down with Michael Batnick and Josh Brown of Ritholtz Wealth Management to discuss the … Read more
by Tom McClellan Back on August 22, I wrote here about how the spread between the 10-year T-Note yield and the 3-month T-Bill yield gives us a leading indication that is … Read more
The central bank announces it’s taking down its benchmark overnight lending rate to a target range of 1.75% to 2%. According to the Fed’s “dot plot” of individual expectations, five … Read more
'The yield curve's slope signals lower corporate profits ahead.' t.co/D0feyLd8qG via @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/40qmqxcCI7 — Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) September 11, 2019 Hedge funds have moved toward defense and lowered overall exposure … Read more
by FS As markets flirt with fears of a recession, many point to the recent yield curve inversion as a telling sign that recession is imminent. Financial Sense Insider spoke with … Read more
By Robert Ross August 14 was the worst day of the year for stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 800 points in a single day. The stock market plunged … Read more
by mark000 via CNBC: Key Points 1.Global interest rates are negative because the world economy is heading toward a synchronized recession. 2.Transportation, banking and small-cap stocks, the last of which are … Read more
via Otavio (Tavi) Costa: 3vs7s just turned negative for the first time in the history of this spread. How long can stocks ignore the abundance of macro imbalances? At some point … Read more
The main part of the yield curve inverted once again on Thursday as the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note traded under that of the 2-year note, the third time the … Read more