The first headline I saw when I turned on Bloomberg.com was “DOJ Officials Find More Classified Documents at President Biden’s Home.” This is an improvement! So far, the task has been handled by Biden’s private attorneys who don’t have proper security clearance; at least the Justice Department is finally getting involved!
But back to the US yield curve. It is now the most inverted in 30+ years as M2 Money growth stalls. Inverted yield curves have preceded recessions in the past.
But as China reopens and Europe is experiencing a warmer winter than expected (meaning that Europe has sufficient natural gas reserves) and US inflation cooling,
we are seeing market-implied odds of a recession falling in January.
I am still betting on a recession in the second half of 2023.
