via fortune:
US households showed signs of increasing financial stress in the first quarter, with credit card balances not declining in the way they typically do at the start of the year and delinquencies rising for most types of consumer loans.
Households added $148 billion in overall debt, bringing the total to $17.05 trillion, according to a report released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on Monday. Balances are now $2.9 trillion higher than just before the pandemic.
Consumers typically build up more credit-card debt at the end of the year, during the holiday season, and then reduce those balances at the start of the following year, sometimes with the help of tax refunds. But for the first time in 20 years, that wasn’t the case this year, suggesting some households are under strain from higher prices and may be relying on credit cards to maintain their spending.
“Credit card balances were flat in the first quarter, at $986 billion, bucking the typical trend of balance declines in first quarters,” researchers wrote in the report.
The overall delinquency rate remained low by historical levels, at 2.6%. But the share of debt that became delinquent — meaning it was at least 30 days late — is rising for most loan types, including credit cards and auto debt.
Consumer delinquencies are already as high as they were in 2020.
The unemployment rate is still at the all time low.
Now that is scary. ⚠️ pic.twitter.com/gqTL0Ao4oX
— Wall Street Silver (@WallStreetSilv) May 15, 2023
Last week, the open interest for $VIX call options hit a 5-year high, topping 10.3 million contracts, per CBOE pic.twitter.com/KhDfwokKlR
— Cheddar Flow (@CheddarFlow) May 16, 2023
VIX is on the move. VIX options expire tomorrow and index options on Friday. t.co/ouqmbVQfg9 pic.twitter.com/uVdrIVLde8
— Financelot (@FinanceLancelot) May 16, 2023
Lumber futures are at their lowest levels since May 2020, down 81% from the peak in May 2021, per Charlie Billelo.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) May 16, 2023
Home Depot just reported disastrous results:
-Worst revenue in 20 years
-4.2% revenue drop year-over-year, largest since the financial crisis
-Transactions down 4.8%
Retailers are in trouble
— Genevieve Roch-Decter, CFA (@GRDecter) May 16, 2023