I think Intel is a generational buying opportunity.
Why?
While most believe it to be a boomer stock with shit fundies, they are missing the bigger picture.
1) Process Nodes – Intel got fat and happy. They let the Taiwanese surpass them using technology that Intel itself was a primary player in developing/funding (EUV machines via ASML). Intel has recently hired a new CEO that while on the surface seems brain dead, is actually a legendary engineer who has Intel on the path to take back leadership in process nodes with 18A. Essentially, they will likely have the fastest/most energy efficient chips in the world in 2024 or 2025.
2) AI – A lot of mouth breathers out there believe that Nvidia will be the only player in AI. They don’t understand that Intel will be a major player as well. Not only because the CPU still plays a role, but because Intel is finishing a supercomputer capable of training an AI model with a trillion parameters (way bigger than chat gpt). Their GPU hardware is legit and their most recent data center max is outperforming the Nvidia flagship H100 by 30% across many workloads.
3) Gaming – Gamers hate Nvidia for constantly raising prices while giving shittier performance per $. Intel ARC GPUs will erode market share in a big way over time. I expect the next model, battlemage, to take significant share from Nvidia as the performance per $ will be unbelievable.
4) Foundry services – Intel is the only leading edge chip manufacturer in the West. As tensions continue to heat up over Taiwan, more and more companies will have Intel manufacturing their designs at fabs in the US. Intel will likely surpass Samsung as the #2 fab in the world by 2030.
5) Western Governments – Fabs are the next oil and Intel is the only game in town for the west when it comes to bleeding edge. I expect the majority of the chips act to go to Intel. Same with the European chips bill. These bills won’t be one offs either. Intel has a monopoly on Western leading edge chips and will get all of the government contracts, grants, funding, etc associated with that.
6) Taiwan – If something happens in Taiwan, even a simple blockade, I would expect the majority of fabless producers (Apple, Nvidia, AMD, Qualcomm, etc) to come running to Intel. If things get heated between the US and China, the US could ensure that all chips for important industries (healthcare, banking, etc) be manufactured in the United States.
These are just the top six reasons why Intel is generationally cheap.
I would load up on 2025 leaps and keep rolling them back.
Disclaimer: This information is only for educational purposes. Do not make any investment decisions based on the information in this article. Do you own due diligence or consult your financial professional before making any investment decision.