by Chris Black
He validates a lot of my own theories on the relationship between the Kremlin and the oligarchs.
Matveev calls Putin a “Bonapartist,” a dictator who tolerates oligarchs making money but does not give them say over Russian policies and makes decisions that undermine them.
There is a very cozy relationship between the political elites and the economic elites, but at the same time, beginning in 2014, this situation gradually began to change. The heightened confrontation with the West is not beneficial to the billionaires, primarily because they are part of a transnational capitalist class rather than just the domestic bourgeoisie. This means they require dense integration into the global economy, but this political and geopolitical confrontation prevents this integration. It is primarily expressed in their inability to borrow money on global financial markets; all the while, Russian business is heavily dependent, in fact, on borrowing money abroad to function.
The level of corporate debt continuously increased up until 2014, followed by a decrease. That means that the Russian capitalist class had to reorient itself into a more domestically oriented regime of accumulation, and this was very painful for them. It threatens their positions, and this is the reason for the potential tension at the top, among the elites in the ruling-class coalition. There is potential for a growing contradiction between the oligarchs and the national security establishment, which is interested in expanding its influence by “securitizing” everything against Western influence: the national culture, the national economy, and so forth. The more the national security establishment does this, the more influence it has.
Missing from Mateev’s analysis is the Jewish question.
Who is “transnational”? Who is empowered by “Westernizing” Russian culture?
Part of Putin’s issue domestically is that much of the Russian middle class is polluted by Jewish/US culture.
The Russian government appears to be attempting to push back against this, but ultimately, it’s not enough and could end up being Putin’s downfall.
Putin has many enemies among the oligarchs (most of them Jewish) quietly waiting for the right moment, and the English speaking upper middle class would support it. It remains to be seen how much of the working class and rural people who are his base he can mobilize to fight back against a coup.
The Ukraine situation is on track for a Russian victory, but if by some miracle they were to be humiliated, it could be the end of the Putin government.
The Chinese are much better at suppressing US cultural attacks like Hollywood movies, porn, black music, ads featuring white women with black men, feminism and LGBT because 1) they have more leverage over the west (economic) and 2) their state is much stronger.
Several tensions run deep in Russian society: Politics are decided by elections without democracy. A growing number of Russian billionaires have outlandish wealth but no political power. And Putin is a populist without the people. t.co/S4V7QySHHC
— Jacobin (@jacobin) February 26, 2022