Inverted Yield Curve Points to Recession?

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by Martin Armstrong

Last week, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bill fell below that of the 3-month note for the first time since 2007. This is what everyone calls an Inverted Yield Curve, and is seen as an early indicator of a recession. In that regard, it is conforming to the Economic Confidence Model (ECM) which has been warning that this last leg should be a hard landing economically for most of the world. Nonetheless, while the yield curve has inverted, it has done so in a rather unusual manner. This is NOTsuggesting a major recession in the United States. Instead, it is a reflection of global uncertainty outside the USA.

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This Inverted Yield Curve is confirming that as the political chaos emerging around the world, and that more and more foreign capital is parking in the dollar. With the May elections on the horizon in Europe, and the October elections in even Canada, April elections in Israel … etc. etc., the capital flows are still pointing ever stronger into the dollar right now. The foreign capital has been buying the 10-year notes driving the spread lower.

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We can see that the 10-year premium to the 2-years has been in a major decline ever since our War Cycle turned in 2014. The Yield Curve (10-2yr) has not inverted. This is clearly showing the capital flight to the dollar that has been going on post-2014. This is not reflecting a major recession in the USA, but it is inferring that the ECM will be turning soon.


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