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Gold implied vol now at all-time lows! Meanwhile: Near 50% of US yield curve inverted. Stocks near record overvalued.Record margins.Longest bull market ever.Outrageously bullish sentiment.Fed flipped dovish.Record global debt/GDP. Nothing … Read more
via @TaviCosta: -% of yield curve inversions surging globally; -15 economies now have 30-yr yields lower than LIBOR overnight rates; -US vs. German 5-year yield spread just broke down from a … Read more
via forbes: There’s a lot of chatter about the inversion of the yield curve and how it’s an indicator of an impending recession. To better understand, let’s take a look … Read more
by Lance Roberts A Run For The Highs Ignore The Yield Curve…They Said Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager A Run For The Highs Friday wrapped up the first … Read more
By John Mauldin Last week, the yield curve inverted for the first time since 2007. The yield for 10-year Treasuries fell below the yield for the 3-month T-Bill. The inversion … Read more
🚧Probabilities of Recession calculated from the Yield Curve, via @zerohedge tks 2 @Analyst_G @ThePitBoss16 @TradersCom @Lizardjb3 @OccupyWisdom @hks55 @SpeculaThor @Analyst_G @mgftzgd @LordPolemos @CoryLVenable @Simple_Trends @PMack1224 @scar_david @ezkappdo @mcm_ct @EconGlobal pic.twitter.com/kdGSWrsDjK … Read more
by Martin Armstrong Last week, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bill fell below that of the 3-month note for the first time since 2007. This is what everyone … Read more
via mishtalk: Yields dropped across the board today as the Fed said it would be patient. A “Dot Plot” shows no hikes expected in 2019. The lead chart shows interest levels … Read more
Originally posted at RecessionAlert.com Based on the methodology discussed here, we hereby update our U.S Yield-curve inversion forecast and subsequent recession and stock market peak forecasts. All the forecast dates have moved … Read more
via mishtalk: The yield curve is inverted in 11 different spots. The latest is 5-year to 3-month inversion. The yield curve recession signal is louder and louder. Inversions are persistent and … Read more
by Status_Flux The main reason for raising interest rates is to combat inflation. However the fed doesn’t actually set rates for short term bonds but rather sets the rates at which … Read more
An inverted yield curve predicts recessions. h/t br_anonbinary
by Charles Hugh-Smith All the policies that worked in the Boost Phase no longer work. Natural and human systems tend to go through stages of expansion, stagnation and decline that … Read more
from Jason Hartman’s Creating Wealth Jason Hartman and Doug take today’s episode as a chance to look at some key happenings in our world today. By now you’ve heard Jason discuss … Read more
Wolf Richter wolfstreet.com, www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter The US Treasury yield curve is having some bad-hair days. It is overall flat-ish, but within this description, it is steepening at the short end, sagging … Read more
Now that 2018 is gone and 2019 has begun, we can continue with the unprecedented times. Odd occurrences are happening every day. Banks are failing. Stocks have fallen. The public … Read more