Why Flattening the Curve is Overrated
by Martin Armstrong COMMENT: Hey, Martin. Thanks for your models and the key insights. My wife, who is an ER nurse, came across this article recently. She read about 90% out loud to … Read more
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The US Coronavirus Curve Appears To Be Getting Steeper, Not Flatter
This tracker is tracking deaths, not cases. via chartr The United States officially has the most coronavirus cases, with almost 86,000 confirmed at the latest count. Sadly, because deaths are mounting and testing rates vary … Read more
Chris Vermeulen: VIRUS CURVE, MARKET CRASH, AND MORTGAGE MASSACRE
by Chris Vermeulen of The Technical Traders In this last segment of our multi-part research article, we want to highlight our expectations of the Covid-19 virus event and how the next 6+ months … Read more
The entire yield curve for U.S. bonds fall below 1% for the first time in history
by Panosmek The entire yield curve for U.S. bonds fell below 1% for the first time in history after an all-out price war between the world’s biggest oil exporters triggered … Read more
Usually the worst credit mistakes are made after the Yield Curve Inverts. Blow Off Tops apply max pressure on value investors. Is This Time Different?
The fact that IFRS books it as “Equity” should be a dead giveaway. $DB Leverage actually increased to 36x tangible equity ex DTAs in 4Q19. — PlungeProtectionTeam (@gamesblazer06) February 26, … Read more
It Takes 15 Months for Yield Curve Inversion To Be Felt
by Tom McClellan We had an inverted yield curve in 2019, and yet the planet did not tumble off its axis. The sky did not fall. So does that mean an … Read more
Inverted Yield Curve + Coronavirus = Catalyst for Gold
From Birch Gold Group This week, Your News to Know rounds up the latest top stories involving gold and the overall economy. Stories include: Why the coronavirus outbreak could be the … Read more
The yield curve does not predict a recession, it causes it
An inverted curve has a simple meaning … IN THE MARKET'S OPINION, the funds rate is too high. Every day the curve is inverted, high rates are damaging the economy. … Read more
The Inverting Yield Curve Is About More Than Recession This Time
(Bloomberg) — A key slice of the U.S. yield curve inverted on Thursday for the first time since October, reviving memories of growth fears that plagued investors last year and … Read more
The Inverted Yield Curve, Part 2? It’s (almost) back.
The Inverted Yield Curve, Part 2??? It's (almost) back. pic.twitter.com/pFh7Ngxoqt — Jim Bianco (@biancoresearch) January 27, 2020 Here is another updated indicator of mine pointing to weaker NFPs in ’20, … Read more
If this persists out the curve, the Fed will have to keep cutting
2-year and 5-year rates have fallen below EFFR again after steepening to +20bps. If this persists out the curve, the Fed will have to keep cutting ✂️✂️ pic.twitter.com/XTbyxZcBYv — Eric … Read more
C&I loan growth y/y tumbling towards zero amid industrial recession, the U.S. 2-10s yield curve has steepened to the widest since October 2018.
c&i loan growth y/y tumbling towards zero amid industrial recession pic.twitter.com/5B5DBt6xBp — Alastair Williamson (@StockBoardAsset) December 29, 2019 The U.S. 2-10s yield curve has steepened to the widest since October … Read more
Q4 GDPNow almost zero. That invented yield curve was sure way off the mark!
Q4 GDPNow almost zero. That invented yield curve was sure way off the mark! t.co/2w6ffQNwGA — Albert Edwards (@albertedwards99) November 15, 2019 if consumer is removed from equation – economy … Read more
The yield curve uninverted and steepened before the 2008 recession
The yield curve going back to normal is almost certainly an extremely bearish sign. It always reverts to normal beforea recession hits, often merely months ahead. fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=ptQw “After the first intraday inversion … Read more
Is The Entire Yield Curve Wrong?
by UPFINA The yield curve is now normal again across all maturities. If it wasn’t for the way the curve inverted, this would be a recessionary warning. There was a major … Read more
Yield Curve Un-Inverts, 10-Year Yield Spikes, Middle-Age Sag Disappears
Wolf Richter wolfstreet.com, www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter Yield Curve Spaghetti! It happened. Hallelujah. Or maybe better: Watch Out! The yield curve, after having been at least partially inverted all year, un-inverted today. The … Read more