by confoundedinterest17 The US is beginning to be out of time for agreeing on a debt limit increase. But you don’t need a fortune teller to tell you that Biden and McCarthy will eventually agree to increase the US debt limit because everyone in Washington …
via Yahoo: “As previously mentioned, this spread has been inverted now for 120 straight trading days — its third longest streak since at least the early 1980’s. The table below lists these occurrences. The last time was in early 2007, …
by confoundedinterest17 Slippin’ into darkness! The US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve, that is. At the same time that the 10Y-2Y yield curve inverts to -108 basis points, Bankrate’s 30-year mortgage rate has risen to 7.11%. Now that The Federal Reserve is …
by confoundedinterest17 Hang ’em high! As inflation remains persist (thanks to endless Fed stimulus and endless Federal spending splurges), we are seeing The Federal Reserve finally withdrawing the monetary stimulus (tightening the monetary noose). And with it, the US Treasury yield …
via worldnewsera: With several hotter-than-expected inflation numbers coming after two successive downshifts in interest-rate increases, an interesting debate is raging as to what the Federal Reserve should do next: Go back to a larger rate increase (50 basis points) or maintain …
by confoundedinterest17 The US economy has a case of the summertime blues. Bull steepenings in the yield curve are generally seen as a precursor to a recession, but they are often preceded by bear steepenings. The 3m30y curve is currently bear steepening, …
by confoundedinterest17 Biden’s State of the Union address saw him bragging about his record job creation (actually, it was the private sector, not Biden than created jobs) and historic unemployment rate. What Biden didn’t mention (along with not discussing the porous …
by Infamous_Sympathy_91 It’s circular bear talk. Long term bond prices are low because no one wants to issue long term bonds at current rates. Short term bong prices are high because of rate hikes and people need cash. That means …
THE US MONEY SUPPLY, TREASURY CURVE AND LEADING ECONOMIC INDEX ARE ALL SIGNALS THAT A "HARD LANDING WILL OCCUR IN 2023" – BOFA. — FinancialJuice (@financialjuice) January 27, 2023 https://twitter.com/MFHoz/status/1618735184106639362 Our $SPY market view, from our 2023 outlook, simplified. We’re …
by confoundedinterest17 Ah, the start of a new week with Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen arguing (with a straight face) that there is no room in the Federal budget for cuts. Apparenly, Yellen never read any of the massive, pork-laden spending bills …
by confoundedinterest17 The first headline I saw when I turned on Bloomberg.com was “DOJ Officials Find More Classified Documents at President Biden’s Home.” This is an improvement! So far, the task has been handled by Biden’s private attorneys who don’t have proper …
via kitco: DoubleLine Capital CEO Jeffrey Gundlach turned bullish on gold after it crossed the $1,800 an ounce level and believes it is a good time to purchase and hold the precious metal. Gold did well in non-dollar terms last year, …
from Monetary-Metals The yield on the 10-year bond recently fell below the rate paid by the Fed on bank reserves. That is, a bank gets paid more to lend to the Fed for a day than to lend to the Treasury …
by confoundedinterest17 Unlike Archie Bell and the Drells, this tighten-up is about The Federal Reserve tightening-up its monetary policy. On December 31, 2021, the US Treasury yield curve (10Y-2Y) stood at +77.4 basis points, generally a good omen. Then markets woke up. …
by confoundedinterest17 Whoop there it is! The US Treasury 10y-2y yield curve descended further into inversion at -82 basis point, the worst since 1981. This is not a good sign, since the 10Y-2Y curve typically inverts just prior to a recession. …
by confoundedinterest17 Do I hear Drums Along The Potomac or East River?? The hawkish drumbeat from central bankers is raising fears of a downturn, with global bonds joining US peers in signaling a recession, as a gauge measuring the worldwide yield curve inverted for the …
by confoundedinterest17 What interest rates are telling us is a bad sign. With an impending railroad strike that can torpedo the US economy (but if that is possible, why is the Biden Clan vacationing in Nantucket for Thanksgiving weekend when …
Financials don't like an inverted yield curve. This chart predicts full scale meltdown BEFORE the end of 2022. pic.twitter.com/71aNAUkBXI — Mac10 (@SuburbanDrone) November 18, 2022 Housing speculators are seeing their “investments” shedding serious Yellen Bux valuations as the Fed’s Housing …
2) This alone is a pretty good leading indicator.https://t.co/vwQRm2ER3A — QF Research (@ResearchQf) November 18, 2022 Forbes: Yield Curve Inversion Steepens; now worse than it was for the Great Recession The yield curve is now deeply inverted. Three months …
by confoundedinterest17 How low will the US Treasury 10y-2y yield curve go? As of today, the US Treasury 10yr-2yr yield curve is the most inverted since 1981 at -70 basis points. I am disappointed that The New York Times cancelled their …
by confoundedinterest17 As the midterm elections get close, the news for Americans gets worse. On the housing/mortgage front, Bankrate’s 30-year mortgage rate (yellow line) just hit 7.20%, the highest since 2000. Also, the US Treasury 10yr-3mo yield curve (white line) inverted, …
by confoundedinterest17 And I thought the Washington Commanders QB Carson Wentz getting sacked nine times in a game against his former team was bad! We start the week with another chapter of “The Worst Bond Bubble Burst Since 1949.” This time …
by Frank Shostak via Mises Speaking at Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on August 26, 2022, the chair of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, said the Fed must continue to raise interest rates—and keep them elevated for a while—to bring the fastest inflation in decades …
by BoatSurfer600 The Big Short’s Michael Burry says “the Nasdaq is in a bull market because it is up 20% off its low? Who makes this stuff up? After 2000, the Nasdaq did that 7 times as it fell 78% …
by confoundedinterest17 The US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve is descending further into darkness (aka, inversion). The 10Y-2Y yield curve hit the worst inversion since 2000 as the curve slope hit -47.7 basis points, inverting another -2.267 basis points today. Yes, the 10Y-2Y …
by confoundedinterest17 Is The Federal Reserve pushin’ too hard on raising their target rate? The US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve descended further into inversion, signaling impending recession. The US unemployment rate (U-3) tends to be the lowest when the 10Y-2Y yield …
by confoundedinterest17 Here is your weekend update on Treasury and Mortgage markets. The current US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve just slipped further into reversion at -40.299 basis points, screaming impending recession. Oddly, The Federal Reserve has been leaving its balance …
Danielle DiMartino Booth – Twitter, Released on 8/3/22 The yield curve votes “NO-CONFIDENCE” on the US economy… I’m sure it’s nothing. https://t.co/56CzUovZ4x — Danielle DiMartino Booth (@DiMartinoBooth) August 3, 2022
