Wolf Richter wolfstreet.com, www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter This Fed is getting seriously hawkish: It revealed that instead of thinking about backing off rate hikes, it’s replacing the yield curve. In the minutes of the FOMC meeting on June 12 and 13, released this …
by presaging I usually follow the yield curve fairly closely (10 Year T-note minus the 2 Year T-note) as it is usually a good predictor for recessions. Utilizing regression models, seasonal fluctuation models, MA(200), and one of my most trusted …
Global Yield Curve Has Inverted for 1st Time Since 2007 Dow transports could soon be in ‘jeopardy,’ and it could spell trouble for stocks, says trader The Dow transports-tracking ETF (IYT) has fallen more than 3 percent in the last …
via variantperception.com Recessions are like death – it’s not a matter of if they will happen, but when. Morbid? Perhaps, but as Steve Jobs put it, “Remembering that I’ll be dead soon is the most important tool I’ve ever encountered to …
To clarify, I’m not suggesting people should be day traders. It means we shouldn’t just buy something and wait for it to appreciate. We should be investing into things which give us passive income. If they appreciate along the way, …
In early May 2018, The Wall Street Journal asked professional forecasters to predict when the next recession would begin. Nearly 6 in 10 answered that the next recession will begin sometime in 2020. […] Overall, both indicators tend to be …
via the Felder Report It seems everyone is talking about the yield curve right now. It also seems most economists and investors are quick to dismiss what would typically signal a clear economic warning as nothing worth worrying about. But …
via Leia Klingel Wall Street is fretting about the flattening yield curve, concerned that if the trend continues – there could soon be a clear indication that a recession is imminent. The gap between two-year Treasury notes and the 10-year benchmark …
Eleven members of the House GOP have given a criminal referral for the top people in the FBI, DOJ and State Department in the Obama Administration. James Comey, Hillary Clinton, Loretta Lynch and Andrew McCabe were all accused of a …
via Carl Surran The tightening yield spread is raising concerns among investors and Fed officials, as the phenomenon may indicate skepticism about the longer-term outlook for U.S. economic growth and inflation. The yield curve from five to 30 years continued to flatten …
by AlexPitti The yield curve is flattening as the difference between the 10 year treasury and 2 year yield is 44 basis points. That’s not enough to worry about a recession now, but some analysts are extrapolating continued flattening to predict …
via Jim Leaviss As the U.S. yield curve flattened to just 45 bps (2s-10s) last week, we dug out something I wrote back in 2007, in the early days of this blog. A chart that accompanied the blog showed that a) U.S. …
via Credit Writedowns The possibility of the Fed causing the curve to invert is real. We will have 12-18 months at most to see what happens economically. This is today’s links post. The one link I want to highlight is …
by Daniel Carter After the sharp selloff in stocks in February, much has been said about a potential recession and stock market crash. Although these events are very difficult to predict, certain indicators are telling us that the next economic slowdown …
via BBG When it comes to the Treasury yield curve, going inverted isn’t the “great move” that Tom Cruise boasted about pulling off when piloting his F-14 Tomcat jet in the cult classic movie Top Gun. After widening in early February, …
by John Rubino For a while there it looked like the blow-off top of this expansion was somewhere in the future. Now it’s starting to look like 2017 was as good as it’s going to get – with serious implications …
by Anthony B Sanders Between The Federal Reserve FINALLY normalizing interest rates and the constant friction in Congress over the Federal budget and debt ceiling, the Treasury market seems dazed and confused. (Bloomberg) — The spread between 1- and 3-month Treasury bills touched -1.93bp …
Wolf Richter wolfstreet.com, www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter And how would the housing market digest these kinds of mortgage rates? In this cycle, the Fed has hiked its target range for the federal funds rate only after meetings that were followed by a press …
by Chris The signs coming out fo the US Treasury market have been less than encouraging for the stock bull case. In fact, the combination of rising interest rates and a falling dollar is possibly a sign that a major …
What’s your opinion on the markets right now? Do you think 2018 will bring more central bank intervention? Take a look at the indicators and you will find one after another showing all-time records. We look at the stock prices …
by Anthony B Sanders US Real GDP is growing at 2.3% YoY. What’s not to like? How about the lowest unemployment rate since 2000 and the worst wage “recovery” in modern times? AND a flattening Treasury yield curve? Yes, we …
By Michael Snyder Whenever we see an inverted yield curve, a recession almost always follows, and that is why many analysts are deeply concerned that the yield curve is currently the flattest that it has been in about a decade. …
Is Silicon Valley in trouble? @GlobalProTrader @jessefelder @MarkYusko @HayekAndKeynes @jtepper2 @StockBoardAsset @zerohedge pic.twitter.com/1ctf0ls5Kd — Greg (@GS_CapSF) October 20, 2017 ICYMI: Equity crowd: Yay! More all-time highs!!Fixed inc crowd: I’m scared! The 2s/10s curve is at post-crisis lows!!KCN pic.twitter.com/FdnFn3cWZC — …
By Michael Snyder If something happens seven times in a row, do you think that there is a pretty good chance that it will happen the eighth time too? Immediately prior to the last seven recessions, we have seen an …
Since this analysis was first published six months ago, several developments have occurred that have moved Hillary Clinton’s ongoing email scandal farther along the bell curve. The timeframe of the curve covers the creation of the scandal, the discovery of …
A bell curve is a useful tool to show how Hillary Clinton’s current scandals are evolving and how they may ultimately resolve themselves. The scandals center on whether Clinton broke any laws regarding national security with her private email server or whether she …