Hedgeye, Released on 8/28/18 Did someone say slowdown? An important historical precedent is emerging which investors should keep a close eye on—it may be another signal that the U.S. is in the late stages of its current economic cycle. The …
via Interest.co.nz: The warnings from the bond market are getting serious. Today, the US 2-10 yield curve dropped below +20 bps for the first time in more than a decade. In fact they didn’t just drop, they fell sharply. The 2 …
Wolf Richter wolfstreet.com, www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter How does it compare to German, Japanese, and Chinese yield curves? On Friday, the US Treasury 2-year yield rose to 2.63% and the 10-year yield remained at 2.82%. This squeezed the spread between them to just …
by Michael Snyder Seven times since the 1960s we have seen the yield curve invert, and in each of those seven instances an economic recession in the United States has followed. Will this time be any different? Today, the yield curve …
Wolf Richter wolfstreet.com, www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter How the “Yield Curves” Stack Up in central-bank manipulated bond markets. So we had a little bond-market upheaval this morning. After President Trump successfully manipulated bond yields down yesterday and today by griping about the Fed’s …
by stockboardasset The Treasury yield curve gets flatter every day, and some strategists expect it to invert, meaning short end yields, like that on the 2-year note, could rise above longer duration yields, like the 10-year. A flat curve is the …
From Birch Gold Group A few weeks ago we reported the Fed was getting hawkish despite what they were calling “low inflation.” In that article, we showed rates possibly being raised more than 4 times in 2019. But more importantly, we warned that anyone investing …
via SUNNY OH An inverted yield curve has a strong record as a recession predictor The yield curve has captured Wall Street—and to a lesser extent Main Street’s—attention in recent weeks. And for a good reason. The past nine recessions have been …
via Aaron Elstein A lot of Wall Street number-crunchers are going to be chained to their desks tomorrow when JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Wells Fargo all report second-quarter earnings more or less simultaneously. Truth be told, all is not well in …
Cc: #NewYork #NewJersey #Connecticut #California The wealthy are readily mobile… Everyone (especially with new tax rules) I know says if their property taxes exceed 15% of income they are gone
via confoundedinterest: It is difficult to predict how the trade scuffles between the US, China and Europe will play out. But what we do know is that the US Treasury 10Y-2Y slope continues flattening, now down to 26.4 basis points. Meanwhile, …
meanwhile 2s10s .266 2s10s swaps < 10bps 5s30s < 2bps 10s30s already inverted Global 10-Year Yields…
Wolf Richter wolfstreet.com, www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter This Fed is getting seriously hawkish: It revealed that instead of thinking about backing off rate hikes, it’s replacing the yield curve. In the minutes of the FOMC meeting on June 12 and 13, released this …
by presaging I usually follow the yield curve fairly closely (10 Year T-note minus the 2 Year T-note) as it is usually a good predictor for recessions. Utilizing regression models, seasonal fluctuation models, MA(200), and one of my most trusted …
Global Yield Curve Has Inverted for 1st Time Since 2007 Dow transports could soon be in ‘jeopardy,’ and it could spell trouble for stocks, says trader The Dow transports-tracking ETF (IYT) has fallen more than 3 percent in the last …
via variantperception.com Recessions are like death – it’s not a matter of if they will happen, but when. Morbid? Perhaps, but as Steve Jobs put it, “Remembering that I’ll be dead soon is the most important tool I’ve ever encountered to …
To clarify, I’m not suggesting people should be day traders. It means we shouldn’t just buy something and wait for it to appreciate. We should be investing into things which give us passive income. If they appreciate along the way, …
In early May 2018, The Wall Street Journal asked professional forecasters to predict when the next recession would begin. Nearly 6 in 10 answered that the next recession will begin sometime in 2020. […] Overall, both indicators tend to be …
via the Felder Report It seems everyone is talking about the yield curve right now. It also seems most economists and investors are quick to dismiss what would typically signal a clear economic warning as nothing worth worrying about. But …
via Leia Klingel Wall Street is fretting about the flattening yield curve, concerned that if the trend continues – there could soon be a clear indication that a recession is imminent. The gap between two-year Treasury notes and the 10-year benchmark …
Eleven members of the House GOP have given a criminal referral for the top people in the FBI, DOJ and State Department in the Obama Administration. James Comey, Hillary Clinton, Loretta Lynch and Andrew McCabe were all accused of a …
via Carl Surran The tightening yield spread is raising concerns among investors and Fed officials, as the phenomenon may indicate skepticism about the longer-term outlook for U.S. economic growth and inflation. The yield curve from five to 30 years continued to flatten …
by AlexPitti The yield curve is flattening as the difference between the 10 year treasury and 2 year yield is 44 basis points. That’s not enough to worry about a recession now, but some analysts are extrapolating continued flattening to predict …
via Jim Leaviss As the U.S. yield curve flattened to just 45 bps (2s-10s) last week, we dug out something I wrote back in 2007, in the early days of this blog. A chart that accompanied the blog showed that a) U.S. …
via Credit Writedowns The possibility of the Fed causing the curve to invert is real. We will have 12-18 months at most to see what happens economically. This is today’s links post. The one link I want to highlight is …
by Daniel Carter After the sharp selloff in stocks in February, much has been said about a potential recession and stock market crash. Although these events are very difficult to predict, certain indicators are telling us that the next economic slowdown …
via BBG When it comes to the Treasury yield curve, going inverted isn’t the “great move” that Tom Cruise boasted about pulling off when piloting his F-14 Tomcat jet in the cult classic movie Top Gun. After widening in early February, …
by John Rubino For a while there it looked like the blow-off top of this expansion was somewhere in the future. Now it’s starting to look like 2017 was as good as it’s going to get – with serious implications …
by Anthony B Sanders Between The Federal Reserve FINALLY normalizing interest rates and the constant friction in Congress over the Federal budget and debt ceiling, the Treasury market seems dazed and confused. (Bloomberg) — The spread between 1- and 3-month Treasury bills touched -1.93bp …
Wolf Richter wolfstreet.com, www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter And how would the housing market digest these kinds of mortgage rates? In this cycle, the Fed has hiked its target range for the federal funds rate only after meetings that were followed by a press …