From Birch Gold Group Looks like the yield curve the Fed swept under the rug back in June continues to prove itself a reliable potential signal for market correction. On Tuesday the Dow Jones continued to trend downward since October 3rd, dropping 800 …
by Lance Roberts So, have you heard the one about the “flattening yield curve?” It almost sounds like the start of a bad joke because there have been so many discussions during this past year on it. However, it has been …
by Frank Holmes, CEO, U.S. Global Investors One of the most reliable indicators of an economic slowdown just flashed a warning sign this week. On Monday, the yield curve between the five-year Treasury yield and three-year Treasury yield inverted, or …
by Troy The stock market tanked -3% today as the yield curve started to invert. Let’s determine the stock market’s most probable direction by objectively quantifying technical analysis. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on …
CDXIG5Y led this $VIX explosion – please be careful there is a credit problem developing in US pic.twitter.com/PfrPIUs7EO — Alastair (@StockBoardAsset) December 4, 2018 JPMORGAN'S DIMON SAYS SHARE BUYBACKS SHOULD NOT BE DONE WHEN STOCK IS EXPENSIVE now he tells …
via Brian Chappatta The U.S. Treasury yield curve just inverted for the first time in more than a decade. It’s a moment that the world’s biggest bond market has been thinking about for the past 12 months. I wrote around this time last …
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-03/the-flattening-yield-curve-just-produced-its-first-inversion Some analysts attributed the short-end underperformance to demand for riskier assets as global trade tensions eased following this weekend’s tariff truce between U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping. Others pinned it to modestly higher expectations for Fed …
via Katherine Greifeld and Emily Barrett As bond traders scale back Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations, one section of the U.S. yield curve is on a fast track to inversion. The spread between 3-year and 5-year Treasury yields shrank to less than 0.1 basis point on …
by Troy December is almost here, and some traders are looking forward to the Santa Claus Rally. We demonstrated that seasonality is not consistent. Hence, seasonality factors are of secondary importance. Let’s determine the stock market’s most probable direction by objectively …
by lxvresearch “Everything turns in circles and spirals with the cosmic heart until infinity. Everything has a vibration that spirals inward or outward — and everything turns together in the same direction at the same time. This vibration keeps going: …
Wolf Richter wolfstreet.com, www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter Ironically, after having lamented the flattening yield curve for a year, soothsayers are now lamenting the steepening of the yield curve. On Friday, capping a rough week in the US Treasury market, the 10-year yield closed …
by Michael Snyder Why would the IMF use the phrase “a second Great Depression” in a report that they know the entire world will read? To be more precise, the IMF stated that “large challenges loom for the global economy to prevent a …
Via Zero Hedge, Authored by Mehul Daya and Neels Heyneke via Nedbank, The first half of 2018 was dominated by tighter global financial conditions amid the contraction in Global $-Liquidity, which resulted in the stronger US dollar weighing heavily on the performance of risks assets, …
via RecessionAlert.com There is a lot of focus on the U.S. yield curve at the moment given its relentless move toward inversion (when short-term rates are higher than long-term rates). Can the history of the yield curve provide for useful forecasting …
via cmegroup: We freely admit: Figure 1 is probably the strangest chart that you will ever see, at least in finance. You may be wondering: did they throw blue spaghetti noodle on paper for inspiration and then write an economics article …
by visualcapitalist If you pay any attention to financial media, chances are that you’ve heard increased chatter about the flattening “yield curve” in the past few weeks. For professional investors, talking about the yield curve is close to second nature – …
The recent $USD curve flattening indicates that markets are in a late-cyclical mindset. But what happens during the 6 months that precede a curve inversion in the US? See picture$NZD usually suffers a lot, while $JPY performs! More in our …
via spurnburn: Plot created using MATLAB. Blue line shows the difference in yield between 10-year bonds and 2-year bonds. Basically, shows the return on long term versus short term bonds (Source: US Treasury Department, treasury.gov) Orange line shows the price of an …
Hedgeye, Released on 8/28/18 Did someone say slowdown? An important historical precedent is emerging which investors should keep a close eye on—it may be another signal that the U.S. is in the late stages of its current economic cycle. The …
via Interest.co.nz: The warnings from the bond market are getting serious. Today, the US 2-10 yield curve dropped below +20 bps for the first time in more than a decade. In fact they didn’t just drop, they fell sharply. The 2 …
Wolf Richter wolfstreet.com, www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter How does it compare to German, Japanese, and Chinese yield curves? On Friday, the US Treasury 2-year yield rose to 2.63% and the 10-year yield remained at 2.82%. This squeezed the spread between them to just …
by Michael Snyder Seven times since the 1960s we have seen the yield curve invert, and in each of those seven instances an economic recession in the United States has followed. Will this time be any different? Today, the yield curve …
Wolf Richter wolfstreet.com, www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter How the “Yield Curves” Stack Up in central-bank manipulated bond markets. So we had a little bond-market upheaval this morning. After President Trump successfully manipulated bond yields down yesterday and today by griping about the Fed’s …
by stockboardasset The Treasury yield curve gets flatter every day, and some strategists expect it to invert, meaning short end yields, like that on the 2-year note, could rise above longer duration yields, like the 10-year. A flat curve is the …
From Birch Gold Group A few weeks ago we reported the Fed was getting hawkish despite what they were calling “low inflation.” In that article, we showed rates possibly being raised more than 4 times in 2019. But more importantly, we warned that anyone investing …
via SUNNY OH An inverted yield curve has a strong record as a recession predictor The yield curve has captured Wall Street—and to a lesser extent Main Street’s—attention in recent weeks. And for a good reason. The past nine recessions have been …
via Aaron Elstein A lot of Wall Street number-crunchers are going to be chained to their desks tomorrow when JPMorgan Chase, Citigroup and Wells Fargo all report second-quarter earnings more or less simultaneously. Truth be told, all is not well in …
Cc: #NewYork #NewJersey #Connecticut #California The wealthy are readily mobile… Everyone (especially with new tax rules) I know says if their property taxes exceed 15% of income they are gone
via confoundedinterest: It is difficult to predict how the trade scuffles between the US, China and Europe will play out. But what we do know is that the US Treasury 10Y-2Y slope continues flattening, now down to 26.4 basis points. Meanwhile, …
meanwhile 2s10s .266 2s10s swaps < 10bps 5s30s < 2bps 10s30s already inverted Global 10-Year Yields…