Recession Signals: The Yield Curve vs. Unemployment Rate Troughs (St. Louis FED article)

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In early May 2018, The Wall Street Journal asked professional forecasters to predict when the next recession would begin. Nearly 6 in 10 answered that the next recession will begin sometime in 2020. […] Overall, both indicators tend to be reliable signals of a coming recession. But as with all recession signals, the wise economic analysts should examine many indicators rather than betting the farm on one or two.

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h/t InvertedYieldCurve


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