Recession Signals: The Yield Curve vs. Unemployment Rate Troughs (St. Louis FED article)

In early May 2018, The Wall Street Journal asked professional forecasters to predict when the next recession would begin. Nearly 6 in 10 answered that the next recession will begin sometime in 2020. […] Overall, both indicators tend to be reliable signals of a coming recession. But as with all recession signals, the wise economic analysts should examine many indicators rather than betting the farm on one or two.

Full article at:

https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/economic-synopses/2018/06/01/recession-signals-the-yield-curve-vs-unemployment-rate-troughs/

h/t InvertedYieldCurve