Is the Yield curve correlated with financial crises? See the chart. Gray vertical bands indicate the last seven financial crises.
An inverted yield curve predicts recessions. h/t br_anonbinary
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China’s S-Curve of Expansion, Stagnation and Decline
by Charles Hugh-Smith All the policies that worked in the Boost Phase no longer work. Natural and human systems tend to go through stages of expansion, stagnation and decline that follow what’s known as the S-Curve. The dynamic isn’t difficult to …
Is a Recession Coming, Trickle Up Default, Yield Curve, Short-Term Rent
from Jason Hartman’s Creating Wealth Jason Hartman and Doug take today’s episode as a chance to look at some key happenings in our world today. By now you’ve heard Jason discuss how there’s a softening in prices at the top of …
Yield Curve Spaghetti – Investors in short-term Treasuries and savings products are having a field day.
Wolf Richter wolfstreet.com, www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter The US Treasury yield curve is having some bad-hair days. It is overall flat-ish, but within this description, it is steepening at the short end, sagging in the middle, and steepening at the long end. And …
Nearly 20% of Global Stocks Have FALLEN 50% or More! Yield Curve Inversion Sparks Fear!
Now that 2018 is gone and 2019 has begun, we can continue with the unprecedented times. Odd occurrences are happening every day. Banks are failing. Stocks have fallen. The public is simply unaware. 2008 is too far away to remember …
Current US yield curve – Now inverted from 1Y to 7Y
by SpontaneousDisorder The government borrows from the market for different lengths of time. ie from 1 month to 30 years. The interest rates (yield) vary according to what the market demands at any moment. This is the yield curve. An …
The Yield Curve Inversion…and Why It Matters
by Doug Hornig, Contributor, GoldSilver GoldSilver’s Mike Maloney recently released a video dealing with inversion of the yield curve in the bond market. It’s an excellent introduction to a subject about which all investors should have a basic grasp. And it’s important …
What Investors Get Wrong About the Yield Curve
by Daniel Carter The yield curve is collapsing once again, and that has many investors talking about what it means for the US economy. Overwhelmingly, the sentiment is that a flattening yield curve is bad for the economy, and an inverted …
T-Minus 10 and Counting: 10Y/2Y Yield Curve Inversion Less Than 10 Basis Points Away
by confoundedinterest The US Treasury 10Y-2Y slope just breached the 10 basis point barrier. And with that, gold is rising. Yes, we are on the inversion express. With gold as the protection. All aboard! Jerome Powell is engineer.
The Yield Curve Flattens And Bank Stocks Plunge. Here’s The Connection – And The Prediction
by John Rubino Despite all the ominous press being devoted to the soon-to-be-inverted yield curve, it’s not always clear why such a thing matters. In other words, how, exactly does a line on a graph slipping below zero translate into a …
What They Aren’t Telling You About The Yield Curve
Join Mike Maloney as he reveals an important factor of the partial Yield Curve inversion that is being ignored by mainstream news and media. Then stick around to the end of the video to see yet another indicator that is …
TraderStef: Goldilocks Recession Is Right Around The Curve
by TraderStef via CrushTheStreet (connect with TraderStef via Twitter or at TraderStef’s website) On the heels of the DOW plunging 800 points today on concerns over an economic slowdown, the bond market has been wagering on a recession by pricing in interest rate cuts that usually accompany a downturn. A flattening yield …
Yield Curve Poised to Invert – Where Will Fed Go From Here?
From Birch Gold Group Looks like the yield curve the Fed swept under the rug back in June continues to prove itself a reliable potential signal for market correction. On Tuesday the Dow Jones continued to trend downward since October 3rd, dropping 800 …
Weekend Reading: Which Yield Curve Really Matters?
by Lance Roberts So, have you heard the one about the “flattening yield curve?” It almost sounds like the start of a bad joke because there have been so many discussions during this past year on it. However, it has been …
The Yield Curve Just Inverted for the First Time in Years. Time to Reconsider Risk?
by Frank Holmes, CEO, U.S. Global Investors One of the most reliable indicators of an economic slowdown just flashed a warning sign this week. On Monday, the yield curve between the five-year Treasury yield and three-year Treasury yield inverted, or …
Stock market crashed while the yield curve inverted. What’s next for stocks
by Troy The stock market tanked -3% today as the yield curve started to invert. Let’s determine the stock market’s most probable direction by objectively quantifying technical analysis. For reference, here’s the random probability of the U.S. stock market going up on …
Credit Problem Developing in US… Gundlach: Yield Curve Inversion Means Economy Is About to Weaken
CDXIG5Y led this $VIX explosion – please be careful there is a credit problem developing in US pic.twitter.com/PfrPIUs7EO — Alastair (@StockBoardAsset) December 4, 2018 JPMORGAN'S DIMON SAYS SHARE BUYBACKS SHOULD NOT BE DONE WHEN STOCK IS EXPENSIVE now he tells …
The U.S. Yield Curve Just Inverted. That’s Huge.
via Brian Chappatta The U.S. Treasury yield curve just inverted for the first time in more than a decade. It’s a moment that the world’s biggest bond market has been thinking about for the past 12 months. I wrote around this time last …
The Flattening Yield Curve Just Produced Its First Inversion since 2007
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-03/the-flattening-yield-curve-just-produced-its-first-inversion Some analysts attributed the short-end underperformance to demand for riskier assets as global trade tensions eased following this weekend’s tariff truce between U.S. President Donald Trump and China’s Xi Jinping. Others pinned it to modestly higher expectations for Fed …
One Section of the U.S. Yield Curve May Invert as Soon as Today
via Katherine Greifeld and Emily Barrett As bond traders scale back Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations, one section of the U.S. yield curve is on a fast track to inversion. The spread between 3-year and 5-year Treasury yields shrank to less than 0.1 basis point on …
The yield curve will invert soon. What’s next for the stock market
by Troy December is almost here, and some traders are looking forward to the Santa Claus Rally. We demonstrated that seasonality is not consistent. Hence, seasonality factors are of secondary importance. Let’s determine the stock market’s most probable direction by objectively …
Late Cycle Signals and Yield Curve Dynamics
by lxvresearch “Everything turns in circles and spirals with the cosmic heart until infinity. Everything has a vibration that spirals inward or outward — and everything turns together in the same direction at the same time. This vibration keeps going: …
10 & 30-Year Yields Surge, Yield Curve “Steepens,” Stocks Drop, as Fed Talks Up Rate Hikes in 2019
Wolf Richter wolfstreet.com, www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter Ironically, after having lamented the flattening yield curve for a year, soothsayers are now lamenting the steepening of the yield curve. On Friday, capping a rough week in the US Treasury market, the 10-year yield closed …
Inverted Global Yield Curve Creates “The Perfect Cocktail For A Liquidity Crunch” As The IMF Warns Of “A Second Great Depression”
by Michael Snyder Why would the IMF use the phrase “a second Great Depression” in a report that they know the entire world will read? To be more precise, the IMF stated that “large challenges loom for the global economy to prevent a …
Liquidity Crisis Looms As Global Bond Curve Nears “The Rubicon” Level
Via Zero Hedge, Authored by Mehul Daya and Neels Heyneke via Nedbank, The first half of 2018 was dominated by tighter global financial conditions amid the contraction in Global $-Liquidity, which resulted in the stronger US dollar weighing heavily on the performance of risks assets, …
Yield Curve Forecasting 2020 Recession
via RecessionAlert.com There is a lot of focus on the U.S. yield curve at the moment given its relentless move toward inversion (when short-term rates are higher than long-term rates). Can the history of the yield curve provide for useful forecasting …
VIX-Yield Curve: At the Door of High Volatility?
via cmegroup: We freely admit: Figure 1 is probably the strangest chart that you will ever see, at least in finance. You may be wondering: did they throw blue spaghetti noodle on paper for inspiration and then write an economics article …
Why Markets are Worried About the Yield Curve
by visualcapitalist If you pay any attention to financial media, chances are that you’ve heard increased chatter about the flattening “yield curve” in the past few weeks. For professional investors, talking about the yield curve is close to second nature – …
Investor Alert: USD curve flattening, third reflation attempt failed, global slowdown, stock market utilization rate reverses…
The recent $USD curve flattening indicates that markets are in a late-cyclical mindset. But what happens during the 6 months that precede a curve inversion in the US? See picture$NZD usually suffers a lot, while $JPY performs! More in our …
The Yield Curve is a good indicator of US market health
via spurnburn: Plot created using MATLAB. Blue line shows the difference in yield between 10-year bonds and 2-year bonds. Basically, shows the return on long term versus short term bonds (Source: US Treasury Department, treasury.gov) Orange line shows the price of an …