by confoundedinterest17 The US economy is now forecast to grow at a rate of 8.33% following the massive Covid lockdown. And the US Treasury 10Y-3M curve fell along with GDP forecast growth. Over a longer period, you can see that the …
by confoundedinterest17 Treasury managed to sell $24 BILLION in 30 year Treasury bonds. The high yield rate was 2.32%. The result? The 30Y-2Y Treasury slope declined along the the 10Y-2Y slope. Good news for the already blistering housing market.
TradersChoice.net, Released on 4/8/21 Gregory Mannarino started his career working for the securities and trading arm of the now defunct Bear Stearns before the dot-com bubble. After realizing that working on Wall Street was not like the movies, he moved on …
by confoundedinterest17 Markets are a sea of red, while the Treasury curve continues to steepen. The Fed continues to print money despite historic low money velocity. Aka, walking dead … money. Yes, this is the Walking Dead Money market. 😂😂😂 …
by confoundedinterest17 A picture is worth a thousand words. And inflation is starting to rear its ugly head. Hopefully the Biden management team of Powell and Yellen avoid the disasters of Venezuela where their 9% coupon bond that went from par …
by confoundedinterest17 Gold and silver rose on Monday morning while cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum fell. Cryptocurrencies (top 5) have exceeded $1 trillion. To be sure, big taxes on cryptocurrencies are on the radar as The Federal Reserve tries to kill competition …
By Robert Ross For about a week last month, the yield curve inverted for the first time since July 2006. Prior to that, this happened in July 2000 and April 1989. There’s a pattern here… each inversion hit about 18 …
Gold implied vol now at all-time lows! Meanwhile: Near 50% of US yield curve inverted. Stocks near record overvalued.Record margins.Longest bull market ever.Outrageously bullish sentiment.Fed flipped dovish.Record global debt/GDP. Nothing wrong here… pic.twitter.com/EnusG9yTER — Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) April 14, …
via @TaviCosta: -% of yield curve inversions surging globally; -15 economies now have 30-yr yields lower than LIBOR overnight rates; -US vs. German 5-year yield spread just broke down from a multi-year support line; -UST vs Bunds 10-year yield spread poised …
via forbes: There’s a lot of chatter about the inversion of the yield curve and how it’s an indicator of an impending recession. To better understand, let’s take a look at both the history, and the current situation. Remember that …
by Lance Roberts A Run For The Highs Ignore The Yield Curve…They Said Sector & Market Analysis 401k Plan Manager A Run For The Highs Friday wrapped up the first quarter of 2019, and it was the best quarterly performance …
By John Mauldin Last week, the yield curve inverted for the first time since 2007. The yield for 10-year Treasuries fell below the yield for the 3-month T-Bill. The inversion set off alarm bells and US stocks fell sharply. While …
🚧Probabilities of Recession calculated from the Yield Curve, via @zerohedge tks 2 @Analyst_G @ThePitBoss16 @TradersCom @Lizardjb3 @OccupyWisdom @hks55 @SpeculaThor @Analyst_G @mgftzgd @LordPolemos @CoryLVenable @Simple_Trends @PMack1224 @scar_david @ezkappdo @mcm_ct @EconGlobal pic.twitter.com/kdGSWrsDjK — Antonio Pérez-Algás (@apanalis) March 29, 2019 Nearly the lowest …
by Martin Armstrong Last week, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury bill fell below that of the 3-month note for the first time since 2007. This is what everyone calls an Inverted Yield Curve, and is seen as an early …
via mishtalk: Yields dropped across the board today as the Fed said it would be patient. A “Dot Plot” shows no hikes expected in 2019. The lead chart shows interest levels today vs those on December 18, the last meeting in …
Originally posted at RecessionAlert.com Based on the methodology discussed here, we hereby update our U.S Yield-curve inversion forecast and subsequent recession and stock market peak forecasts. All the forecast dates have moved forward by 1 month as the yield curve continues to …
via mishtalk: The yield curve is inverted in 11 different spots. The latest is 5-year to 3-month inversion. The yield curve recession signal is louder and louder. Inversions are persistent and growing. Let’s compare the spreads today to that of December …
by Status_Flux The main reason for raising interest rates is to combat inflation. However the fed doesn’t actually set rates for short term bonds but rather sets the rates at which banks borrow from each other. This in turn affects demand …
An inverted yield curve predicts recessions. h/t br_anonbinary
by Charles Hugh-Smith All the policies that worked in the Boost Phase no longer work. Natural and human systems tend to go through stages of expansion, stagnation and decline that follow what’s known as the S-Curve. The dynamic isn’t difficult to …
from Jason Hartman’s Creating Wealth Jason Hartman and Doug take today’s episode as a chance to look at some key happenings in our world today. By now you’ve heard Jason discuss how there’s a softening in prices at the top of …
Wolf Richter wolfstreet.com, www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter The US Treasury yield curve is having some bad-hair days. It is overall flat-ish, but within this description, it is steepening at the short end, sagging in the middle, and steepening at the long end. And …
Now that 2018 is gone and 2019 has begun, we can continue with the unprecedented times. Odd occurrences are happening every day. Banks are failing. Stocks have fallen. The public is simply unaware. 2008 is too far away to remember …
by SpontaneousDisorder The government borrows from the market for different lengths of time. ie from 1 month to 30 years. The interest rates (yield) vary according to what the market demands at any moment. This is the yield curve. An …
by Doug Hornig, Contributor, GoldSilver GoldSilver’s Mike Maloney recently released a video dealing with inversion of the yield curve in the bond market. It’s an excellent introduction to a subject about which all investors should have a basic grasp. And it’s important …
by Daniel Carter The yield curve is collapsing once again, and that has many investors talking about what it means for the US economy. Overwhelmingly, the sentiment is that a flattening yield curve is bad for the economy, and an inverted …
by confoundedinterest The US Treasury 10Y-2Y slope just breached the 10 basis point barrier. And with that, gold is rising. Yes, we are on the inversion express. With gold as the protection. All aboard! Jerome Powell is engineer.
by John Rubino Despite all the ominous press being devoted to the soon-to-be-inverted yield curve, it’s not always clear why such a thing matters. In other words, how, exactly does a line on a graph slipping below zero translate into a …
Join Mike Maloney as he reveals an important factor of the partial Yield Curve inversion that is being ignored by mainstream news and media. Then stick around to the end of the video to see yet another indicator that is …
by TraderStef via CrushTheStreet (connect with TraderStef via Twitter or at TraderStef’s website) On the heels of the DOW plunging 800 points today on concerns over an economic slowdown, the bond market has been wagering on a recession by pricing in interest rate cuts that usually accompany a downturn. A flattening yield …