by confoundedinterest17 Alarm! As most economists are aware, unemployment rates are not a leading indicator of a recession. But job cuts ARE a leading indicator. Challenger US job cuts rose 58.8% YoY in June. Combine that with negative REAL wage growth …
by cbus20122 Probably not a surprise, but wanted to share this for discussion points. Given, the initial and brief inversion in April 2022 garnered most of the attention, but I personally think this one will get a bit deeper unless …
This is the curve they were talking about flattening. pic.twitter.com/KZPdIPhhi9 — Ian Smith, Sr. (@iansmithfitness) April 26, 2022 AC
by Frank Shostak via Mises At the end of March this year the difference between the yield on the ten-year Treasury bond and the yield on the two-year Treasury bond fell to 0.010 percent from 1.582 percent at the end of March 2021. …
Goldman Sachs compares this period to 1973 and then concludes stocks will likely RISE by 4%: "The 2s10s yield curve inverted in 1973, a comparable period of high inflation. The S&P 500 ultimately entered a bear market, falling 48%" Buyer …
by confoundedinterest17 Its official! I submitted my resignation from George Mason University effective June 1, 2022. I will miss teaching the students, past and present. But back to the US Treasury yield curve. It remains in reversion (meaning shorter-term Treasuries …
Bianco Research, Released on 3/31/22 (Recorded on 3/29/22) Today Jim will discuss the yield curve’s message and what that message is signaling to the market. · What do the different curves mean? · Why are they different? · Why inflation …
by confoundedinterest17 Alarm! There is a massive divergence between the collapsing US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve and the near-term forward spread. The near-term forward spread is the difference between the implied interest rate expected on a three-month Treasury bill six quarters …
From MishTalk: The long end of the yield curve rallied strongly on Tuesday with the middle of the curve pricing in more hikes by the Fed. More inversions signal a recession sooner rather than later. Yield Curve data from the …
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=NwP2 Once again, it’s all about moves in the bond market … and, per yesterday’s tweet, related concerns about inflation, a late Fed, and the risk of a monetary policy error. Yields are higher, the 2s-10s curve is below 10 …
Trader Ferg, Released on 3/25/22
by confoundedinterest17 We’ve got Trouble in Potomac City! The US Treasury 10Y-5Y curve is going deeper into inversion. The short end of the Treasury curve is rising, as expected, but declining at the 5 year tenor and beyond. The aggregate Treasury …
by confoundedinterest17 The US Treasury 10Y-5Y curve (aka, the belly of the Treasury beast) has inverted. It is more about the 10Y Treasury yield rising more slowly than the 5Y yield. Freddie Mac’s 30Y mortgage commitment rate rose to 4.42%. …
by confoundedinterest17 Oil prices are soaring as US President Biden pleads like a homeless person to foreign countries for oil rather than let the US produce more oil to drive down prices. Meanwhile, the US Treasury yield curve 10Y-3M is at …
by confoundedinterest17 Today’s hawky-dove announcement by The Fed (raises rates by only 25 basis points, but hints that many rate hikes are around the corner. The US Treasury 10Y-5Y curve has slumped to zero as inflation climbs and the number of rate hikes hits …
Yield curve, one of the best indicators of #recession, is dropping rapidly. #Fed is going to have a problem. (They should have been hiking rates in 2020-2021 as they were flooding the #markets with #QE) pic.twitter.com/ksztY9p3Qo — Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) …
https://twitter.com/Ben__Rickert/status/1491216188348977156 These are the new orders Moar inflation is needed https://t.co/EIquIgeoHe — Alessio (@AlessioTMAD) February 9, 2022 Fed Fund Futures now expecting 5.3 interest rate hikes in 2022. pic.twitter.com/pSALHV5rUT — Jonesy (@HedgeyeDJ) February 9, 2022 Global negative yielding bonds are …
Fed and ECB still behind the inflation curve.Central banks risk a pile-up of monetary policy tightening as inflation expectations become more embedded.By @elerianm https://t.co/5ra5cAm2hR — Nouriel Roubini (@Nouriel) February 7, 2022 "Negative interest rates are hugely unpopular…Some ECB policy makers …
by confoundedinterest17 Raphael Bostic and Goldman Sachs are both calling for dramatic rate increases to fight inflation … that they helped cause with their monetary stimulypto. I call this The Fed’s March of the Toreadors as The Fed now attempts to kill …
by confoundedinterest17 Yes, The Federal Reserve could have raised their target rate at their January meeting, but chose not to raise rates. Instead, Chairman Powell said that rate increases are a comin’! I hope Powell wasn’t hoping for a slowdown …
Factory activity in the Philadelphia area rebounded as demand strengthened in January after a sharp slowdown in the previous month, according to a survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia released Thursday. Inflationary expectations of manufacturers, however, jumped to …
https://twitter.com/DrEliDavid/status/1481710222494388229
Governments spent astronomical sums in the past 2 years, all with the ultimate goal of “flattening the curve.” But none of it went to increasing hospital capacity, and they’re still trying to flatten the curve with destructive and ineffective measures. …
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1479457583966609411
https://twitter.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1479078595033247752 https://twitter.com/PriapusIQ/status/1479075487091732481
by confoundedinterest17 Its Thanksgiving in the USA! Confession: I don’t like turkey. Prime rib with horseradish sauce? You bet!! Anyway, Treasuries ended mixed Wednesday with the yield curve sharply flatter after a raft of U.S. economic data and minutes of …
Howe Street, Released on 11/12/21 Bob Hoye is a trained geologist, successful resource investor and economic historian. Bob is the chief investment strategist for chartsandmarkets.com.
🇺🇸 Recession Is a recession on the horizon in the US, as the yield curve is flattening?👉 https://t.co/m11iBkSWhc h/t @GoldmanSachs #markets #yieldcurve #yields #yield#treasuries #bonds #bondmarket #recession #investing pic.twitter.com/BOEUUSKfTw — ISABELNET (@ISABELNET_SA) November 4, 2021 #recession … China $USD #Liquidity …
by The Phoenix Inflation is ROARING. Five year breakevens, which is a key inflation measure, just hit a new all-time high of 3.0% (started in 2002). Inflation expectations running out to five years are now higher than at any point in …
