The U.S. Federal Reserve will hold its key interest rate steady this year despite an expected recession, according to a Reuters poll of economists, who also said the risk of a U.S. default over the debt ceiling was higher compared to prior stand-offs.
— unusual_whales (@unusual_whales) May 17, 2023
Pessimism pic.twitter.com/3Glo9FgSU2
— Win Smart, CFA (@WinfieldSmart) May 17, 2023
Real estate bubble? What bubble?
Graph via Morgan Stanley pic.twitter.com/P2ZPlbuFyG
— Daniel Lacalle Official Account (@dlacalle_IA) May 17, 2023
Yellen knows we are on the verge of a major recession regardless of the debt ceiling.
Forcing a confrontation now in June gives them the possibility of blaming the “Everything Bubble Collapse” on the House GOP. pic.twitter.com/ilqvBHDTIA
— Wall Street Mav (@WallStreetMav) May 16, 2023
Growth expectations continue to remain week, but the #market has rallied strongly since the #October lows.
The question is, which one is right?
h/t @ISABELNET_SA pic.twitter.com/UHWqAjVvJc— Lance Roberts (@LanceRoberts) May 17, 2023
The Near-Term Forward Yield Spread-based model suggests that the probability of recession is 99.3% within 12 months pic.twitter.com/rTZhitJevs
— Markets & Mayhem (@Mayhem4Markets) May 17, 2023
Copper stays in contango, a bearish form of the term structure. When in contango, traders hold inventory and go short the futures to hedge in order to earn the carry in tue forward curve. This is another sign that market stays weak pic.twitter.com/16ZomV5HYY
— Menthor Q (@MenthorQpro) May 17, 2023
B of A: “One reason to expect a U-shaped rather than a V-shaped recession is that different parts of the economy are weakening at different times. .. Regardless of what the NBER .. decides, a period of very weak growth .. will likely continue through next year.” pic.twitter.com/gSZ7mUhzHW
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) May 17, 2023