Kamala Harris: Biden could lose…. CNN: Joe Biden’s true lead is smaller than it appears

CNN: Joe Biden’s true lead is smaller than it appears

(CNN)Former Vice President Joe Biden continues to hold an advantage over President Donald Trump in the polls. Given that we’re past both major party conventions and closing in on Labor Day, the only fair conclusion to reach is that Biden’s the favorite.

Yet, it continues to be clear that the national polling will continue to overstate Biden’s edge. An examination of the state polls shows a race that, while not a tossup by any means, is closer than the national polls would indicate.
The national polls after the convention tell a pretty clear story. Biden is up by around 8 points. That’s what the CNN/SSRS poll shows. That’s what the Grinnell College/Selzer and Co. poll has. The average, depending on how you compute it, has basically the same thing.
As I noted last week, elected incumbents rarely gain ground after the conventions. The two biggest gainers in the modern era were Dwight Eisenhower in 1956 and George H.W. Bush in 1992. Both picked up about 4 points, which would only cut Biden’s edge by about half.