Karl Denninger: Yes, There IS A Crash Coming

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How do I know?

Because the shoe-shine boy bull**** is going on again.

Don’t get me wrong — I love the money to be made in the last phase of a blow-off like this and those with iron balls can make plenty of money on a crash too.  Just be careful with anything that can get you in margin trouble and for the love of God do not short (or sell naked calls!) against anything spiking.

The two that have really gotten my attention of late are GME and BB.  BlackBerry, as you know if you’ve read my column for a while, really does have something that the market is paying attention to now after several years.  Chen has managed to turn the company into a security software suite powerhouse and while the wins so far are small in size the names he has those wins with are not. And — the firm is hiring, which nobody does when they’re in financial trouble (well, other than bankruptcy lawyers.)

GME, on the other hand, has been turned into a pawn shop for used gaming consoles and cartridges/DVDs by online delivery to basically every platform out there.  It’s a company with literally no value seeing wild double-digit increases in price daily for the last week or so.  They have no PE, their EPS is negative 4 bucks and change (and across ~70 million shares that’s damned impressive at roughly a third of a billion being put in the bonfire a year!) and with under half a billion in cash and under $200 million a year in operating cash flow well, you do the math.

I can’t figure out why anyone thinks this firm has a future.  Then again Pets.Com was going to be the big thing too, you know, along with My****Buddy.Com, MyBlowUpDoll.Com and similar schemes back in 1999.

How’d all that work out for you?

Do recall I ran a real company with a 43% pretax operating margin and no debt selling Internet service during that time..


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