We Are Facing a Depression, Not a Recession

by

By John Mauldin We are already seeing large increases in request for unemployment insurance. It is going to explode. Let’s look at this data from Homebase. A stunning 39% drop in the number of hourly employees going to work in the U.S. just in the 10 days ended Friday, March 20. Is there anybody who … Read more

Reuters: PG&E utility to plead guilty to involuntary manslaughter over 2018 fire

by

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-pg-e-us-bankruptcy/pge-to-plead-guilty-to-84-involuntary-manslaughter-counts-over-2018-wildfire-idUSKBN21A1TJ PG&E Corp (PCG.N) said on Monday its utility unit agreed to plead guilty to 84 involuntary manslaughter counts in connection with the 2018 Camp Fire, the most destructive fire in California’s history. In a regulatory filing, PG&E said the plea by its Pacific Gas & Electric unit was part of a March 17 plea … Read more

Why people say that in times like this Fed printing money and government “bailouts” are bad?

by

by ObservationalHumor Simplest answer? General ignorance of how these polices are implemented, what’s driving the problems in the economy, their impact and what exactly the stakes are if they are not pursued. In general it tends to boil down to some oddball moralizing argument about how debt is innately bad and you periodically need waves of … Read more

Recent events in oil geopolitics.

by

by ObservationalHumor So just another oil update here. Things seem to be coming to a head quickly as major oil refiners like Exxon are opting to reduce refinery output. This might prove problematic for Saudi Arabia’s strategy of flooding the market with oil as there’s literally no one to buy it and their decision to reserve … Read more

The FED has officially wasted their ultimate

by

by Vi0lentByt3 Barely a week into the unofficial self quarantine and papa J has already wasted one of the FEDs most powerful tools, literally just buying every fucking bond they can. It was said here before, the Federal gov is throwing money at a problem that doesnt accept cash. There is no way to prop … Read more

America Throwing Elderly to the sideline to save the markets

by

by megachirops95 Tx Lt Gov Dan Patrick says grandparents would be willing to die to save the economy for their grandchildren pic.twitter.com/wC3Ngvtsbj — Andrew Lawrence (@ndrew_lawrence) March 24, 2020 LT Gov. Dan Patrick went on fox and said that Grandparents should die so the whole country shouldn’t be sacrificed.    

75% of small businesses cannot last a month with zero revenues. Morgan Stanley expects initial jobless claims to rise to 3.4 million

by

75% of small businesses cannot last a month with zero revenues. The median cash buffer is 27 days. This is why we need serious supply measures to allow businesses to survive a mandatory shutdown. pic.twitter.com/XpeQPi2sK4 — Daniel Lacalle (@dlacalle_IA) March 24, 2020 More than 47,000 U.S. chain stores have temporarily shut their doors. “In the … Read more

China’s economic slowdown and nascent recovery in charts

by

by cefpodoxime FT China economic activity index https://ig.ft.com/autograph/graphics/china-economic-activity-indicator.svg?frame=webM FT China subindices https://ig.ft.com/autograph/graphics/china-economic-activity-indicator-subindices.svg?frame=webL Shanghai composite stock index stood at 3115 on Jan 13 before China shutdown. Then it fell to a short term bottom of 2746 on Feb 3, recovered to 3071 on March 5, before plummeting past it’s nadir now (2660 right now on March 23). Perhaps … Read more

Helicopter Money: Short-Term Relief Won’t Cure our Financial Disease

by

by Charles Hugh-Smith The collateral supporting the global mountain of debt is crumbling as speculative bubbles deflate. A great many freebies are being tossed in the Helicopter Money basket. That households experiencing declines in income need immediate support is obvious, as is the need to throw credit lifelines to small businesses. But beyond those essentials, … Read more

Here comes first of many High Yield defaults… Junk bond default rate to triple within 12 months, S&P says

by

here comes first of many High Yield defaults$NMG #NeimanMarcus pic.twitter.com/FyQXGcUXCd — Gold Mansacks (@Gold_Mansack) March 23, 2020 $HYG $JNK $BKLN $LQDJunk bond default rate to triple within 12 months, S&P says – CNBC*S&P Global Ratings said the default rate for high-yield, or junk, bonds is heading to 10% over the next 12 months, more than … Read more

Spend! Spend! Spend!

by

by Shaun Richards The weekend just passed was one which saw one of the economic dams of our time creak and then look like it had broken. This was due to the announcements coming out of Germany which as regular readers will be aware has a debt brake and had been planning for a fiscal … Read more