Investment Watch Blog

by Jesse Colombo As the current economic cycle becomes increasingly long-in-the-tooth and macroeconomic and earnings data deteriorate, it is time to start thinking about the next recession. In particular, I wanted to point out that the U.S. federal debt burden has never been so high before a recession, as the chart below shows (hat tip to my Twitterfollower @grimacemcdonald for … Read more

by Frank Shostak via Mises Wire In a free, unhampered market, we could envisage that the economy would be subject to various shocks but it is difficult to envisage a phenomenon of recurrent boom-bust cycles. According to Rothbard, Before the Industrial Revolution in approximately the late 18th century, there were no regularly recurring booms and depressions. There would … Read more

by Harry Dent of Economy & Markets Recently we talked about why Millennials aren’t buying a house at the same rate as their Boomer and Gen X parents. Today, let’s talk about how Boomers and Gen Xers are actually contributing to the housing shortage, and so driving up prices and thwarting the ability of younger people to buy. And… Why … Read more

by Chris Kimble In 2000 the Dow Jones Utility index spent around 7-months creating a topping process. The S&P 500 had declined for nearly 12-months before the waterfall decline in Utilities got started. In 2007, Utilities spent nearly 12-months creating a topping process. The S&P 500 had declined for nearly 9-months before the waterfall decline in Utilities got started. … Read more

by Graham Summers of Gains, Pains, & Capital Yesterday the market broke critical support, at 2,800. This is particularly notable because this breakdown took place despite a clear leak by the Trump administration concerning a trade deal with China. It was only when the PPT stepped in around 1PM that stocks bounced. Put another way, REAL sellers showed … Read more

by Troy The stock market’s nonstop rally is slowing down, with the S&P 500 below its 10 day moving average for the first time in 41 days. The short-medium term outlook is mixed right now, with neither bulls nor bears having a strong edge (although there is a slight short term bearish lean). Meanwhile, there’s … Read more

By Tsvetana Paraskova The all-time high U.S. crude oil exports have been pushing demand and rates for very large crude carriers (VLCCs) higher since the middle of February as American exports are attractive thanks to the wide Brent-WTI spread in recent weeks. Rates for the supertankers, VLCCs, capable of carrying up to 2 million barrels … Read more

The [CB] is rapidly imploding on itself. Trump is pushing ahead with the transition and needs to complete most of it before the [CB] really starts to accelerate the downside. From all the indicators it is rapidly falling apart. The [CB] is designed to enrich the wealthy and hurt the younger generation, this is about … Read more

via @mcm_ct:   US stocks are the most overvalued ever, higher than prior speculative mania market peaks in 1929 & 2000 1. Price to Sales 2. Price to Book 3. Enterprise Value to Sales 4. Enterprise Value to EBITDA 5. Price to Earnings 6. Enterprise Value to Free Cash Flow h/t @TaviCosta   Some pretty negative … Read more

by Michael Snyder We now have official confirmation that the U.S. economy has dramatically slowed down.  In recent days I have shared a whole bunch of numbers with my readers that clearly demonstrate that a new economic downturn has begun.  And even though stock prices have been rising, the numbers for the “real economy” have been depressingly bad lately.  … Read more

Wolf Richter wolfstreet.com, http://www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter Inventory continues to surge. Potential buyers move on. Here is the good news: Lower prices stir sales. Clearly, homebuilders are motivated to move their inventory, and they’re making deals at lower prices. The median price of new single-family houses whose sales closed in December fell 7.2% from a year earlier, to … Read more

Wolf Richter wolfstreet.com, http://www.amazon.com/author/wolfrichter Orders for Class-8 trucks – made by Daimler (Freightliner, Western Star), Paccar (Peterbuilt, Kenworth), Navistar International, and Volvo Group (Mack Trucks, Volvo Trucks) – plunged 58% in February compared to February last year, to 16,700 orders, according to FTR Transportation Intelligence after they’d already plunged 58% year-over-year in January and 43% in December. … Read more

by Michael Snyder Is this a sign of what is coming for the rest of the nation?  In Martin County, Kentucky times are very tough right now.  Thanks to severe budget cutbacks, there are only two paid law enforcement officers covering a deeply impoverished 231-square-mile area that sits right in the heart of America’s raging … Read more

via visualcapitalist: Imagine being an investor in Microsoft at the time of the company’s IPO in 1986. Or better yet, buying Amazon shares while it was still just an aspiring online book store in the late 1990s. Chances to be an early adopter in the next billion-dollar industry are far and few in between – but … Read more

by howmuch Amazon backed out of its plans to build an office in New York, citing the pushback and criticism from politicians like Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Even if some people are still hoping Amazon will reconsider, the entire idea behind bringing Amazon to Queens, NY was for job creation. Getting a job working on computers is supposed to be a lucrative … Read more

President Trump signs an executive order creating a task force to address and help prevent veterans from hurting themselves