Change Happens Fast

via northmantrader: NFP missed this morning and futures initially seemed positive on the news. Why? Because it gives excuses for the Fed to slow down their 2019 rate hike schedule. Still running negative real rates 10 years following the financial crisis we’ve seemingly gone from Janet Yellen seeing risk of the economy overheating to “Federal Reserve officialsconsidering whether … Read more

Employment, NYSE margin debt

by WARREN MOSLER Employment growth had been decelerating with the collapse in oil capex in Dec. 2014, but had started to accelerate with the initial impact of the year-end tax cuts, which now look to be fading: Highlights Sustainable non-inflationary strength is the indication from the November employment report as payroll growth proved favorable and … Read more

Weekend Reading: Which Yield Curve Really Matters?

by Lance Roberts So, have you heard the one about the “flattening yield curve?” It almost sounds like the start of a bad joke because there have been so many discussions during this past year on it. However, it has been largely dismissed under the “this time is different” scenario as trailing economic data has remained strong and … Read more

Fed comments, Trump watching stocks

by WARREN MOSLER A falling stock market will get the Fed’s attention and trigger real economic weakness and aggressive rate cuts. But those rate cuts remove interest income from the macro economy, which doesn’t recover until after net deficit spending (public or private) gets high enough to support aggregate demand growth. And the last recession … Read more

The upcoming storm could crack the top five biggest snowfalls in Asheville, North Carolina history. (Global Warming alert)

  Get your suntan lotion out. Global Warming is at your door! The upcoming storm could crack the top five biggest snowfalls in Asheville, North Carolina history. The upcoming storm could crack the top five biggest snowfalls in Asheville, North Carolina history. pic.twitter.com/pv69VIIMKB — WeatherNation (@WeatherNation) December 7, 2018 A winter storm is on the … Read more

Elections have consequences: Oregon governor hires English major to craft multi-BILLION tax increase

by DCG Funny, when Gov. Kate Brown was running for re-election this year, she repeatedly declined to answer direct questions about tax policy (seeThe Oregonian). She also declined to say how much additional revenue the state would need. Voters re-elected her knowing that they would have to wait until late this year for the governor to release her budget … Read more

Never enough: Gun grabbers going after high-capacity magazines & more in Washington State

by DCG The gun grabbers in Washington State never quit. Voters in progressive Washington State approved (59.35% voted in favor) I-1639 last month which includes the following new gun control restrictions: Raising the minimum age to purchase a gun to 21 Adding background checks Increasing waiting periods Enacting storage requirements Read the details about the voter-approved initiative here. … Read more

More than 6 of 10 non-U.S. citizen households get welfare

by Dr. Eowyn A new study by the Center for Immigration Studies (CIS) found that, in spite of “barriers designed to prevent welfare use” by non-citizens, as many as 63% of non-U.S. citizen households in America have received some form of government welfare “often receiving benefits on behalf of U.S.-born children.” In contrast, only 35% of U.S. citizen households accessed welfare. … Read more

China-US scenarios

China-US scenarios: its obvious really but still a helpful 2*2 summary also of the varying scenarios that folks are laying out. @FitchRatings by way of @SoberLook pic.twitter.com/G0mipstEe3 — Adam Tooze (@adam_tooze) December 7, 2018

Recession ahead?

Average weekly *hours YoY vs. Retail Sales YoY pic.twitter.com/AIU2Glxucr — Teddy Vallee (@TeddyVallee) December 7, 2018 ECRI U.S. Weekly Leading Index growth edged down to -4.1%, a 144-week low. #economy https://t.co/oVlvE3ZV3P pic.twitter.com/uuNP3UBxS4 — Economic Cycle Research Institute (ECRI) (@businesscycle) December 7, 2018 Recession ahead? BASF cuts '18 EBIT outlook on Chemical segment. Cuts view to … Read more

Credit spreads blowing out again, excess liquidity stays ugly into 2h19

credit spreads blowing out again pic.twitter.com/cz97yAUrKb — Alastair (@StockBoardAsset) December 7, 2018 https://twitter.com/TeddyVallee/status/1071082524418433027 pic.twitter.com/mpIa0ODpTV — Alastair (@StockBoardAsset) December 7, 2018 remember: when stocks get ahead of credit – that is when stocks puke pic.twitter.com/hVM8mdhPyP — Alastair (@StockBoardAsset) December 7, 2018 I got good news and bad news…next week should be a low timing wise but … Read more

Schools and Hospitals being CLOSED across UK due to OUTBREAK of Norovirus – over 600,000 have fallen ill so far

This seems to happen every year, but this years outbreak is more alarming than usual. Dozens of hospitals and handfuls of schools have closed all across the UK as a result of a Norovirus outbreak. THAT IS CRAZY, even though it’s only a 20% increase from this time last year of the same viral outbreak. Over … Read more

Trend Carefully

by Dana Lyons The numerous important trendline tests currently underway across the financial markets suggest this is a key juncture. Volatility in global equity markets has kicked back into hyper-drive this week with an average daily true range in the S&P 500 approaching a staggering 3% for the week. The volatility (at least the downside part … Read more

JOURNALISTS WONDER WHY NOBODY BELIEVES THEM NOW?

by Mark Tapscott Journalists lauded former Attorney General Jeff Sessions for recusing himself from all matters involving the investigation of allegations of collusion between 2016 Trump campaign aides and Russian interests in order to avoid even the appearance of conflicts of interest. But what about the mainstream media’s conflicts of interests? Journalism ethics dictate that journalists … Read more