Please Do Not Panic – The Last Time Stagflation Keyword Tagged This High Interest It Was 2008…. We’re in the Midst of a Global Synchronous Downturn!

Data Doesn’t Lie: We’re in the Midst of a Global Synchronous Downturn

“Global synchronous recovery.” It’s such a pretty phrase. It sounds great and the mainstream media loves to talk about it, this idea of the world’s major economies all walking in lockstep into a shared and more robust fiscal future.

But what we actually have is a global synchronous slowdown, which is amazing given the extraordinary lengths central banks have gone to trying to engineer recoveries. What happens when the effects of rising interest rates and shrinking central bank balance sheets choke off what little growth there is?

Finally, and most ominously, this chart of quarterly GDP growth shows the three largest developed market economies.

We see in all three places that quarterly growth peaked in mid-2017 and then fell in the last quarter. Yet the experts tell us a synchronized global recovery is forming. Really?

What I see here is a synchronized downturn. Granted, it’s just a couple of quarters but early data makes Q1 2018 look lower still.

If a recession is coming, GDP growth will decline from its present level to 0% or below. That process will likely unfold over a few quarters—and may already be beginning.

 

U.K. Retail Misery Endures as Sales Decline Most on Record – “Retailers are undergoing a torrid time, hit by the rise of online shopping and a consumer pullback in the face of rising prices and sluggish wage growth. Severe weather in the first quarter added to their misery”

What’s retail look like when the credit spigot is turned way down?

A BOOM in consumer credit has fuelled growth in the debt of UK households which is now close to its 1980s peak, according to Fitch.

The ratings agency said that UK households’ swing into an aggregate net financial deficit position over the last year is almost unprecedented.

 

Corporate America Is Staring Down a $4 Trillion Wall of Refinancing

Bloomberg21 hours ago

Companies will need to refinance an estimated $4 trillion of bonds over the next five years, about two-thirds of all their outstanding debt, according to Wells …

Japan gov’t debt hits record-high 1087 tril. yen at end-March

The Mainichi4 hours ago

TOKYO (Kyodo) — Japan’s government debt hit a record-high 1,087.81 trillion yen ($9.9 trillion) at the end of March, the Finance Ministry said Thursday, …

State legislature approves “painful solution” to unfunded public …

The Colorado Independent29 minutes ago

When Colorado teachers rallied outside the state Capitol in April, they were asking lawmakers to ensure they have a stable retirement pension, among other …

Dozens of cities need bankruptcy because of unfunded mandates …

Jacksonville Journal-Courier5 hours ago
Harvey was the first Illinois city to have state tax dollars intercepted by the state comptroller’s office to pay into pensionfunds. A financial analysis group says …
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