How Trump is on track for a 2020 landslide
Economic models point to a Trump blowout in 2020. But a faltering economy or giant scandal could change everything.
President Donald Trump has a low approval rating. He is engaging in bitter Twitter wars and facing metastasizing investigations.
But if the election were held today, he’d likely ride to a second term in a huge landslide, according to multiple economic models with strong track records of picking presidential winners and losses.
Credit a strong U.S. economy featuring low unemployment, rising wages and low gas prices — along with the historic advantage held by incumbent presidents.
While Trump appears to be in a much stronger position than his approval rating and conventional Beltway wisdom might suggest, he also could wind up in trouble if the economy slows markedly between now and next fall, as many analysts predict it will.
And other legal bombshells could explode the current scenario. Trump’s party managed to lose the House in 2018 despite a strong economy. So the models could wind up wrong this time around.
Despite all these caveats, Trump looks surprisingly good if the old James Carville maxim coined in 1992 — “the economy, stupid” — holds true in 2020.
“The economy is just so damn strong right now and by all historic precedent the incumbent should run away with it,” said Donald Luskin, chief investment officer of TrendMacrolytics, a research firm whose model correctly predicted Trump’s 2016 win when most opinion polls did not. “I just don’t see how the blue wall could resist all that.”
- Democrats have frequently highlighted the ways in which they say President Donald Trump violates the norms of the American presidency and our political system — and in most cases, they’re correct.
- Unfortunately, instead of making clear they will do right where Trump has gone wrong, some members of the party apparatus and 2020 presidential candidates aren’t advocating correction.
- What they’re proposing seeks to overcorrect, creating an environment in which Trump can win a second term by labeling Democrats the extremists.
Democrats accuse President Donald Trump of violating the norms of the American presidency and of the US political system, and in most cases, they’re correct.
Unfortunately, instead of making clear they will right where Trump went wrong, some members of the party apparatus and 2020 presidential candidates aren’t advocating correction. What they’re proposing seeks to overcorrect, creating an environment in which Trump can win a second term by labeling Democrats the extremists.
Trump’s routine trashing of the free press, his dismissal of the intelligence community and the people he handpicked to lead those agencies, and his attacks on the Justice Department apparatus investigating Russian involvement in the 2016 election have created a political climate unlike any other we have seen in modern times.
Additionally, his propensity for making hasty decisions costs him and the nation before someone steps and forces him to wise up. When Trump announced the withdrawal of troops from Syria without consulting military personnel, it paved the way for James Mattis to leave his role as secretary of defense in January. It’s nearly April, and the president still hasn’t named a permanent replacement.