by Chris Black
CSTO, the Russia led discount version of NATO, is officially dead.
Armenia refused to sign a declaration at the CSTO summit.
Putin threw his pen and Lukashenko was visibly angry, throwing his hands up.
Armenia was mad nobody did anything when Azerbaijan attacked them so it seems like they are done with CSTO.
Armenia has a population of just 3 million and is surrounded by enemies, mainly Azerbaijan and Turkey, and now they’re pissing off their only ally.
Nikol Pashinyan refused to sign a declaration following the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) summit.
In fact, it means that the CSTO has collapsed completely.
Putin dropped his pen, Lukashenko is shocked. pic.twitter.com/lqPwusW4Gi
— Anton Gerashchenko (@Gerashchenko_en) November 24, 2022
Here’s the deal: the United States could extend Russia in the Caucasus in two ways.
First, the United States could push for a closer NATO relationship with Georgia and Azerbaijan, likely leading Russia to strengthen its military presence in South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Armenia, and southern Russia.
Alternatively, the United States could try to induce Armenia to break with Russia. Although a long-standing Russian partner, Armenia has also developed ties with the West: it provides troops to NATO-led operations in Afghanistan and is a member of NATO’s Partnership for Peace, and it also recently agreed to strengthen its political ties with the EU.
Now, the United States might try to encourage Armenia to move fully into the NATO orbit.
If the United States were to succeed in this policy, then Russia might be forced to withdraw from its army base at Gyumri and an army and air base near Yerevan (currently leased until 2044), and divert even more resources to its Southern Military District.