Shhhhhh: The Yield Curve Is Quietly Inverting in Plain Sight, Signaling Recession

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via mishtalk:

The yield curve is inverted in 11 different spots. The latest is 5-year to 3-month inversion.

The yield curve recession signal is louder and louder. Inversions are persistent and growing.

Let’s compare the spreads today to that of December 18, the start of the December 2018 FOMC meeting.

Yield Curve 2019-02-26 vs December and October 2018

Yield Curve Spread Analysis

Spread Changes

Something Happening

Something is happening. What is it?

Possibilities

  1. The bond market is staring to worry about trillion dollar deficits as far as the eye can see
  2. The bond market has stagflation worries
  3. The bond bull market is over or approaching

An in regards to recession the economy is weakening fast.

Mike “Mish” Shedlock

 

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