So I crunched the numbers and compared to January-July deaths of previous years, we’re short by about 250,000. Something’s up.

by Theodora_Roosevelt

Yearly death counts by month, CDC reports

Provisional death counts 2020, CDC report

I’m going to take data from the January – July reports for previous years and compare them to 2020’s provisional total death counts and then compare it to 2020’s non-Covid death counts.

  • 2020

Total deaths: 1,606,681

Total Covid deaths: 144,703

Total non-Covid Deaths: 1,461,978

  • 2018

Total deaths: 1,679,697

Compared to 2020 deaths: +73,016

Compared to 2020 non-Covid deaths: +217,719

  • 2017

Total deaths: 1,650,681

Compared to 2020 deaths: +44,000

Compared to 2020 non-Covid deaths: +188,703

  • 2016

Total deaths: 1,604,048

Compared to 2020 deaths: -2,633

Compared to 2020 non-Covid deaths: +142,070

  • 2015

Total deaths: 1,620,263

Compared to 2020 deaths: -13,582

Compared to 2020 non-Covid deaths: 158,285

And it goes on and on following that trend.

IN FACT the average growth in yearly death counts is 1.15% so to extrapolate from 2018’s figures, when the 2019 data gets published, the January-July figures should be around 1,699,089 and based on the growth rate, 2020’s figure should have looked to be around 1,718,706.

The numbers for 2020 are way off if we’re supposed to be in the middle of this deadly plague. We should have hit 1,863,409 by now if the 144,703 people Covid killed were “excess deaths” but we’re in a deficit of about 256,728.

Something’s wrong.

 

 

Disclaimer: This is a guest post and it doesn’t necessarily represent the views of IWB.