S&P 500 tech the most verbought in 20 years… pic.twitter.com/PklPV19yqW
— fiatcurrency (@fiatcurrency) January 31, 2020
An abundance of valuation absurdities in this manic market. $SHOP is just another example. EV to sales jumped from 12 to 36 times last year as revenue growth decelerated and negative free cash flow continued. 510 times 2020 expected earnings! pic.twitter.com/a1LSUiAVaZ
— Kevin C. Smith, CFA (@crescatkevin) February 1, 2020
$AMD was a hot stock last year but became a crowded long. Historically a cyclical stock, it trades at its highest EV to sales ever ahead of a likely business cycle downturn. Inventories grow and prices get cut in recessions. $INTC and $NVDA are tough competitors. pic.twitter.com/SZyKGfFW1y
— Kevin C. Smith, CFA (@crescatkevin) January 30, 2020
The kiss of death for stocks.
S&P 500 just formed a gravestone doji on its monthly candle.
Technicals, fundamentals & macro.
A bearish alignment after the longest bull market in history. pic.twitter.com/0ipf9pPvfZ
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) January 31, 2020
'Normally when there is a divergence between stock prices going higher and earnings going lower (as a % of GDP), that is a setup for an important top for stock prices.' https://t.co/qyzK7i74Hi by @McClellanOsc pic.twitter.com/CMtmOadKBU
— Jesse Felder (@jessefelder) February 1, 2020
Dip buyers, consider the following:https://t.co/9GuDlmurU4
Thanks for the article @slangwise pic.twitter.com/MpUN2vhGmw
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) January 30, 2020
56%.
That’s the % of inversions in the US yield curve today.
On the verge of the critical 70% again.
Every time it first exceeded this level:
– The S&P 500 fell by 27% on average for the next 2-years
– A recession coincided or followed.Already first breached in August 2019. pic.twitter.com/QOPkzcGVxR
— Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@TaviCosta) January 31, 2020
Best case: temporary pullback on the way to new all-time highs
Base case: selloff accelerates near term then levels out before charging higher on gargantuan cowbell
Worst case: we just put in a generational double-top and this is the beginning of a VERY rough decade. pic.twitter.com/Cok0qIdGba
— Blueshirt Advisers (@blueshirt_omaha) January 31, 2020