treasury
LOL! Treasury Secretary Yellen Claims Biden Energy Policy Not Responsible for Biden Energy Prices
This interview is nothing but gaslighting crazy talk from an insufferable ideologue who is responsible for managing the insane policy driven consequences of transitioning from oil, gas and coal into an era where windmills and solar panels provide U.S. electricity. …
US Gasoline Tops $5 (Highest In History), 2Y Treasury Yields Soaring, Mortgage Rates Highest Since 2008 (Inflation Tax Costing Households $5,200 More YoY)
by confoundedinterest17 Up, up and away in our inflationary balloon! Regular gasoline prices have breached the $5 a gallon barrier, the highest in recorded history. And it is even worse in states like California where regular gas prices have been above …
3Y Treasury Yield passed 10Y Treasury Yield this morning. Recession confirmed.
by laflammaster From almost 20% of GDP last year to less than 5% this year. I can’t say when the “official” recession will begin however growth is currently hovering at 0% right now, which means that ex-deficit we are ALREADY …
The Economy Is Toast, But At Least The Treasury Department Is Flying A Pride Flag
For the first time in our history, Treasury is displaying the Pride Flag to express our solidarity with LGBTQ+ Americans during Pride Month. @USTreasury remains committed to diversity, equity, and equal opportunity for all. pic.twitter.com/QJK5o2yuGn — Secretary Janet Yellen (Archived) …
Step! 2-year Treasury Yield Rises +10.5 Basis Points On Fed Tightening, 10Y-2Y Yield Curve Flattens
by confoundedinterest17 Another 10 basis point jumps in Treasury yields, this time at the 2-year Treasury Note. The 10Y-2Y Treasury slope just flattened to +26 BPS. Another step in rising mortgage rates! Washington DC is anything but Harmony Hall.
How a crypto crash could spread to Treasury bonds and other fixed-income securities
by Boo_Randy Looks like its dawning on the Powers that Be that a crypto crash could spread contagion throughout the financial system. Moms, start preparing your basements for when your lil’ baggies move back in. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/how-a-crypto-crash-could-spread-to-treasury-bonds-and-other-fixed-income-securities-11653639671?mod=mw_latestnews A cryptocurrency crash could …
US Inflation Rate Rising, Expected Growth Declining (10Y Treasury Yield Down, US Equities Down >-1%)
by confoundedinterest17 Here comes the night! The US economy us approaching recession as inflation soars and expected growth declines. Food and energy prices are soaring, hitting middle class and low-wage households like a hammer. While the headline inflation rate is 8.3% …
US 10-year Treasury yield reaches 3% for first time since 2018…
by __brodo__ The yield on the government bond has profound effects on the economy, feeding into home mortgage rates and borrowing costs for companies. The higher yield, which rises when bond prices fall, is tightening financial conditions after two years …
Biggest Treasury Buyer Outside U.S. Quietly Offloads Billions (dollar’s rule as world’s reserve currency on borrowed time)
by Boo_Randy Is the Fed’s monetary malpractice about to catch up with the US dollar? For decades Japan and China have funded our massive deficit spending by buying up trillions in US debt…but it appears the BoJ, at least, has …
Exactly one year ago, 1Y Treasury Yield was 0.05%. Now 1Y Treasury yield is over 2% – or 40x increase. Strap yourselves in.
by laflammaster Everyone selling short(er)-term treasury notes. Bond market usually a leading indicator to equities market.
Primary dealers are providing less and less liquidity in the Treasury market as their ability to use repo has shrunk due to tighter regulation and higher balance sheet costs.
An incredibly important chart. Primary dealers are providing less and less liquidity in the Treasury market as their ability to use repo has shrunk due to tighter regulation and higher balance sheet costs. Less structural liquidity makes the UST market …
Alarm! Treasury 10Y Term Premium Remains Deeply Negative As Fed Plans Its Attack On Mortgage Rates And Treasury Yields (3M TBill/OIS Spread Crashes As 30Y Mortgage Rate Is -3%) Venezuela 2Y Yield At … 436.77%
by confoundedinterest17 Alarm! The 10-year Treasury term premium, the amount by which the yield on a long-term bond is greater than the yield on shorter-term bonds, remains steeply negative (white line) as The Federal Reserve steps up its attack (aka, monetary …
Treasury Bonds ETF (TLT) Teetering After Worst 2-Years in History!
by Kimble Charting Treasury bonds have left a bad taste in investors’ mouths for the past couple of years. And this collective “UGH!” comes after years of solid returns. Will the bull market continue? Or is this the beginning of …
Alarm! Massive Divergence Between US Treasury Yield Curve And Near-term Forward Spread (Biden Considers Releasing HUGE Oil Release To Control Inflation)
by confoundedinterest17 Alarm! There is a massive divergence between the collapsing US Treasury 10Y-2Y yield curve and the near-term forward spread. The near-term forward spread is the difference between the implied interest rate expected on a three-month Treasury bill six quarters …
Epic collapse underway in the US Treasury yield curve
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=NwP2 Once again, it’s all about moves in the bond market … and, per yesterday’s tweet, related concerns about inflation, a late Fed, and the risk of a monetary policy error. Yields are higher, the 2s-10s curve is below 10 …
H-15 update. Log data of treasury yields showing we’re getting close to a new recession.
by laflammaster You can trick the stock market, but you can’t trick the bond market. This is a treasury yield graph across multiple terms. I won’t go into what treasury yield is here. The squiggly lines showing a log-converted data …
H8 Update. Biggest drop in unrealized gains of $18.4B to -$73.8B. Big banks drop by $15.9B to -$51.2B. Total Treasury/MBS drop $9.4B to -$44.6B, and big banks by $7.4B to -$25.4B.
by laflammaster Caption: The Fed will stop posting unrealized gains from banks within a month. https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h8/current/default.htm
Trouble In Potomac City! US Treasury 10Y-5Y Curve Goes Further Into Inversion As Mortgage Rates Keeps Rising
by confoundedinterest17 We’ve got Trouble in Potomac City! The US Treasury 10Y-5Y curve is going deeper into inversion. The short end of the Treasury curve is rising, as expected, but declining at the 5 year tenor and beyond. The aggregate Treasury …
Headaches On Headaches! 10Y Treasury Rates Rises 8.6 BPS, But REAL 10Y Is -5.50% Thanks To 40-Year High Inflation
by confoundedinterest17 Headaches on headaches. Overnight, the US Treasury yield rose to 2.38% as the number of forecast Fed rate hikes rose to 8.211. So, enjoy “low” rates while you can. If we back out the highest inflation rate in 40 …
Inversion! US Treasury 10Y-5Y Curve Inverts As Investors Flee Treasury Market As Mortgage Rates Hit 4.42%
by confoundedinterest17 The US Treasury 10Y-5Y curve (aka, the belly of the Treasury beast) has inverted. It is more about the 10Y Treasury yield rising more slowly than the 5Y yield. Freddie Mac’s 30Y mortgage commitment rate rose to 4.42%. …
Fed Expected To Raise Rate 8+ Times Over Next 12 Months Leading To Surge In 2-year Treasury Yield And Mortgage Rates (Powell’s Money Gun To Slow Rate Of Fire)
by confoundedinterest17 This is the chart from hell as The Fed is expected to take interest rates higher. At least mortgage rates are down slightly today. With 8+ rate hikes forecast over the next twelve months. Meaning that Powell’s Fed money gun …
US 10Y-3M Treasury Curve Steepest Under Biden Presidency While 10Y-2Y Curve Flattest Under Biden As inflation, Oil Soar (Gasoline UP 10% In New York Port, Mortgage Rates Climb)
by confoundedinterest17 Oil prices are soaring as US President Biden pleads like a homeless person to foreign countries for oil rather than let the US produce more oil to drive down prices. Meanwhile, the US Treasury yield curve 10Y-3M is at …
Fed’s “Fats” Waller Says Rates Too Low And Data Is Screaming Towards 50 BPS Increase In Rates (As 10Y-2Y Treasury Yield Curve Flattens Below 20 BPS)
by confoundedinterest17 The Federal Reserve’s Christopher “Fats” Waller thinks that your rates are too low. “The data is basically screaming at us to go 50 but the geopolitical events were telling you to go forward with caution. So those two factors …
Powell And The Fed Gang Stick With Negative REAL Treasury And Mortgage Rates (US Housing Starts SOAR 6.8% In February)
by confoundedinterest17 Well, Powell and The Fed Gang failed to tackle inflation with its 25 basis point increase in their target rate. The result? Inflation is still roaring and REAL Treasury yields remain NEGATIVE (nominal Treasury yields – inflation). In fact, the US …
Do I Detect A Trend? US Treasury 10Y-5Y Slope Hits Zero (Inversion Imminent) As USD OIS Curve Steepens (Nickel UP 66.25%)
by confoundedinterest17 Today’s hawky-dove announcement by The Fed (raises rates by only 25 basis points, but hints that many rate hikes are around the corner. The US Treasury 10Y-5Y curve has slumped to zero as inflation climbs and the number of rate hikes hits …
Fed Week! 10Y Treasury Yield UP 11.1 BPS, Mortgage Rates UP To 4.33%, Oil Down 7.5% (Russian, Ukraine Sovereign Curves Collapsing)
by confoundedinterest17 Yes, it is the much anticipated Fed Week! The Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC) will announce it decision (probably the first rate hike under Biden of 25 basis points). This morning, the 10-year Treasury yield rose by 11.1 …
MBA Mortgage Purchase Applications Rise 11%, Refi Applications Rise 9% From Previous Week, But Refi Apps Still Down 50% From Same Week Last Year (10Y-2Y Treasury Curve Continues To Flatten)
by confoundedinterest17 The mayhem caused by the Russian invasion of Ukraine is helping drive down interest rates … for the time being … and this is helping push down mortgage rates and increase mortgage applications. Mortgage applications increased 8.5 percent …