The banks continue to be trouble,trouble,trouble

by Shaun Richards

The weekend just past has been full of banking news which has not been good. That is quite an anti achievement when we note that a decade or so ago when the banking crisis hit we were assured by politicians and central bankers that it would never be allowed to happen again and they would fix the problems. Whereas the reality has been represented by this from the Guardian this morning.

Under the new Lloyds Bank “Lend A Hand” deal, a first-time buyer will be able to borrow up to £500,000 for a new home, without putting down a penny of deposit.

Why is this necessary? It is because the establishment have played the same old song of higher house prices and telling people they are better off via wealth effects. Meanwhile the claims of no inflation are contradicted by the increasing inability of first-time buyers to afford housing even with ultra-low mortgage rates to help.

In this instance the mortgage is 100% of the loan for the people taking it out but payments are backed for 3 years by a family member or members.

The Lloyds deal requires that a member of the family – such as parent, grandparent or close relative – helps out. The bank will only grant the 100% mortgage if the family member puts a sum equal to 10% of the value of the property into a Lloyds savings account.

I have looked it up and their liability is limited to the first 3 years.

At the end of the 3 years, you will be able to take out your savings plus interest. That’s as long as the buyer hasn’t missed any payments or their home hasn’t been repossessed.

Frankly if payments are in danger of being missed it may suit the family member to fund them. But unless things go dreadfully wrong after 3 years we have what it a mortgage with only a little equity as not much is repaid in the first 3 years.

But as ever we see something of a round-tripping cycle between the central bank which pushes cheap liquidity to the banks who then pump up the housing market.

Vim Maru, group director of Lloyds Banking Group, which also controls Halifax, said: “We are committed to lending £30bn to first-time buyers by 2020 as part of our pledge to help people and communities across Britain prosper – and ‘Lend a Hand’ is one of the ways we will do this.

Mark Carney’s morning espresso will be tasting especially good today.

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China

Let me hand you over to the People’s Bank of China which has issued a Q&A about its new (easing) policy and it starts with something very familiar.

Banks need to have adequate capital to guarantee sustainable financial support for the real economy.

When central banks state that what they in fact mean is the housing sector. For example the Bank of England claimed its Funding for Lending Scheme was for smaller businesses when in fact lending to them fell but mortgage lending picked up as mortgage rates plunged. So let us dig deeper.

The Central Bank Bills Swap (CBS) allows financial institutions holding banks’ perpetual bonds to have more collateral of high quality, improves market liquidity of such bonds, and increases market desire to buy them, thereby encouraging banks to replenish capital via perpetual bond issuance and creating favourable conditions for stepping up financial support for the real economy.

As we do so we see that what are finite organisations (banks) have debt forever which is troubling for starters. We also note that this is a type of debt for equity operation as we mull that there are some quite good reasons for not being keen on bank equity. So debt in this form ( perpetual) qualifies as capital and I believe Tier 1 capital in this case. The next move is that the perpetual bonds can be swapped for central bank bills meaning that the central bank now has the risk and the investor has none in return for a haircut depending on how much collateral is required. Thus we get.

increases market desire to buy them

because if you have worries you just accept the haircut and pass the rest of the risk to the PBOC.  As to improving market liquidity then the Bank of China was quick to back up that point.

Bank of China issued 40 billion yuan perpetual on Friday at a coupon rate of 4.5%, the first bank issuer of perpetualbond in . ( Yuan Talks)

The catch is that these sort of moves create liquidity for a time but later can drain it. That is because if things go wrong you end up with two very different markets which is the real one and the central bank supported one.

So the banks will get more capital and they will use it to raise lending and if history is any guide the “real economy” will be the housing market. This will then be presented as a surprise and we will learn what the Chinese word for counterfactual is.

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Deutsche Bank

It is always there isn’t it? Let us start with what looked like some better news which was a 4% rally in the share price to 8.13 Euros on Friday. This looks like an early wire on this from @DeltaOne yesterday.

DEUTSCHE BANK GETS ADDITIONAL INVESTMENT FROM QATAR…….DISCUSSIONS ON QATAR INVESTMENT ARE ADVANCED BUT NO FINAL AGREEMENT TIMING AND SIZE OF INVESTMENT UNCLEAR

As they are already shareholders then this would be a case of doubling up or rather if we look at the price history doubling down. Of course this is not the only plan doing the rounds about DB.

Shareholders in Deutsche Bank have voiced deep concerns about the German lender’s mooted tie-up with domestic rival Commerzbank, saying the move would “paralyse” the country’s largest lender and destroy value for investors. ( Financial News)

Mind you it has been doing a pretty good job of destroying shareholder value all on its own.

Greece

Here we have seen massive sums used to pump up the banks at the cost of the national debt of Greece itself. But according to the IMF at the end of last week more is needed.

Restoring growth-enhancing bank lending will require swift, comprehensive, and well-coordinated actions to help repair balance sheets. Coordinated steps by key stakeholders are needed to support banks’ efforts to achieve a faster reduction of non-performing loans (NPL).

So all the bailouts have been to the tune of “Tantalize Me” by Jimmy the Hoover from back in the day.

Comment

The sad part of all of this is that we are observing yet another lost decade. As so often the hype and indeed hyperbole has not been matched by action. Central banks like to trumpet the improvement in bank capital ratios but if you look at bank share prices then there has been a shortage of investors willing to put their money where the central banks open mouth operations are.

In the case of Deutsche Bank as well as the Chinese and Greek banking systems we see that we are entering yet another phase of the crisis. With the problems recently at Metro Bank in the UK that had its risk model wrong in another “mistake” then the central banks will be on the case this time or maybe not.

This means we have not been processing most model change requests from internal model banks. ( Reserve Bank of New Zealand)

 

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